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Tennessee Titans at New York Giants

Sunday Early · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETTEN @ NYG
Tennessee Titans

Away

Tennessee Titans

0-2

New York Giants

Home

New York Giants

1-0

Model Win Probability

Tennessee Titans · Away

30%

Model
separation40%

New York Giants · Home

70%

Signal: Unrated· components agree · 100% feature coverage · starting-QB status unresolved
Elo component
29% TEN
Efficiency component
27% TEN
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-21T03:30:00Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

9
78
Offense
6
72
Passing
31
78
Rushing
12
9
Defense
59
25
Pass Rush
30
66
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

TENMetricNYG
-0.137EPA / Play0.077
38.7%Success Rate44.8%
-0.149Dropback EPA0.156
-0.111Rush EPA-0.027
9.8%Explosive Play Rate12.3%
34.1%3rd Down Conversion47.2%
18.5%Red Zone TD Rate17.4%
0.105Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.115
6.1%Pressure Rate5.2%

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Kickoff
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
6 days
Site
New York Giants home game

Player Impact

Cam Ward

QB

2026 Weeks 1–2

CMP/ATT
32/52
Pass yds
323
Pass TD
1
INT
0
Y/A
6.2
Sacks
5

Tony Pollard

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
21
Rush yds
99
YPC
4.7
Rush TD
0
Targets
3
Rec
2
Rush share
48.8%

Tyjae Spears

RB

2026 Weeks 1–2

Carries
10
Rush yds
53
YPC
5.3
Rush TD
0
Targets
6
Rec
4
Rush share
23.3%

Carnell Tate

WR

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
11
Rec
7
Rec yds
65
YPR
9.3
Rec TD
0
Target share
24.4%

Gunnar Helm

TE

2026 Weeks 1–2

Targets
7
Rec
6
Rec yds
41
YPR
6.8
Rec TD
0
Target share
15.6%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Tennessee Titans

Cordale FlottCB

QUESTIONABLE

Quadricep · Did Not Participate In Practice

James WilliamsLB

QUESTIONABLE

Elbow · Limited Participation in Practice

Cedric GrayLB

QUESTIONABLE

Concussion · Full Participation in Practice

Home · New York Giants

Jaxson DartQB

QUESTIONABLE

Left knee injury during the Week 2 Monday game

Week 3 availability was unresolved at the data cutoff.

Micah McFaddenLB

QUESTIONABLE

Neck · Limited Participation in Practice

Deonte BanksCB

QUESTIONABLE

Calf · Did Not Participate In Practice

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 2 games

Away · Tennessee Titans

Q1
10
Q2
3
Q3
7
Q4
10

Home · New York Giants

Q1
7
Q2
7
Q3
7
Q4
7

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · TEN

passing

Tennessee Titans is at the 6th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · TEN

efficiency

Tennessee Titans is at the 12th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Passing profile · NYG

passing

New York Giants is at the 72th league percentile in blended passing efficiency entering Week 3.

Defense profile · NYG

efficiency

New York Giants is at the 9th league percentile in blended defensive efficiency; higher values reflect fewer EPA allowed.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Blended model gives Tennessee Titans 30% and New York Giants 70%.
  • Elo puts Tennessee Titans at 28.9% and the efficiency model at 27.1%.
  • Both components favour New York Giants, a 1.8 point difference between them.

What Could Flip It

  • A 1.8 point split between rating and efficiency views leaves room for the Tennessee Titans side.
  • The Giants' Week 3 quarterback status is unresolved (Jaxson Dart).

Model Analysis

pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 rates Tennessee Titans (0-2) at 30% to win at New York Giants (1-0). Elo puts Tennessee Titans at 28.9% and the efficiency model at 27.1%; the blend lands at 30%. Both components agree on New York Giants. The Giants' Week 3 quarterback status is unresolved (Jaxson Dart).

Forecast

New York Giants projected to win, 70% of the time in the model.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.