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Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETARI @ NYG
Arizona Cardinals

Away

Arizona Cardinals

1-2

New York Giants

Home

New York Giants

2-1

Model Win Probability

Arizona Cardinals · Away

43%

Model
separation14%

New York Giants · Home

57%

Signal: Unrated· components agree · 100% feature coverage · starting-QB status unresolved
Elo component
42% ARI
Efficiency component
46% ARI
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

45
48
Offense
52
55
Passing
16
65
Rushing
16
10
Defense
10
16
Pass Rush
56
42
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

ARIMetricNYG
-0.008EPA / Play0.015
43.4%Success Rate42.8%
0.064Dropback EPA0.073
-0.151Rush EPA-0.061
10.0%Explosive Play Rate11.4%
42.8%3rd Down Conversion42.3%
54.8%Red Zone TD Rate50.0%
0.102Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.103

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
New York Giants home game

Player Impact

Jacoby Brissett

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

CMP/ATT
82/117
Pass yds
652
Pass TD
4
INT
1
Y/A
5.6
Sacks
5

Jeremiyah Love

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
41
Rush yds
160
YPC
3.9
Rush TD
1
Targets
12
Rec
10
Rush share
52.6%

Tyler Allgeier

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
24
Rush yds
70
YPC
2.9
Rush TD
0
Targets
8
Rec
8
Rush share
30.8%

Trey McBride

TE

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
34
Rec
26
Rec yds
211
YPR
8.1
Rec TD
2
Target share
30.1%

Michael Wilson

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
31
Rec
18
Rec yds
163
YPR
9.1
Rec TD
1
Target share
27.4%

Injuries & Availability

Home · New York Giants

Jaxson DartQB

IR

Season-ending knee injury; placed on injured reserve.

Jameis Winston started Week 3. The model has no explicit quarterback adjustment.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 3 games

Away · Arizona Cardinals

Q1
7
Q2
19
Q3
10
Q4
27

Home · New York Giants

Q1
10
Q2
16
Q3
13
Q4
7

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · ARI

passing

Arizona Cardinals ranks in the 52th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · ARI

efficiency

Arizona Cardinals ranks in the 16th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Passing profile · NYG

passing

New York Giants ranks in the 55th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · NYG

efficiency

New York Giants ranks in the 10th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo favors New York Giants at 57.8%.
  • Rolling efficiency favors New York Giants at 54.4%.
  • The calibrated estimate is 57%; it is a probability, not a certainty.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Arizona Cardinals and 3 for New York Giants; prior-season form is still blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
  • The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.

Model Analysis

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: the v0.3 ensemble places New York Giants at 57% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Arizona Cardinals and 3 for New York Giants; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: New York Giants (57%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.