Away
Pittsburgh Steelers
2-1
Home
Cleveland Browns
2-1
Model Win Probability
Pittsburgh Steelers · Away
61%
separation22%
Cleveland Browns · Home
39%
- Elo component
- 63% PIT
- Efficiency component
- 66% PIT
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| PIT | Metric | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| -0.041 | EPA / Play | -0.152 |
| 42.5% | Success Rate | 36.6% |
| -0.032 | Dropback EPA | -0.131 |
| -0.040 | Rush EPA | -0.175 |
| 11.5% | Explosive Play Rate | 9.2% |
| 40.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 34.9% |
| 50.8% | Red Zone TD Rate | 47.5% |
| 0.007 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.059 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Huntington Bank Field
- Kickoff
- Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 4 days
- Home rest
- 4 days
- Site
- Cleveland Browns home game
Player Impact
Aaron Rodgers
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 66/113
- Pass yds
- 700
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.2
- Sacks
- 8
Jaylen Warren
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 38
- Rush yds
- 216
- YPC
- 5.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 10
- Rush share
- 56.7%
Rico Dowdle
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 37
- YPC
- 2.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 22.4%
DK Metcalf
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 98
- YPR
- 8.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 22.9%
Roman Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 114
- YPR
- 10.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.1%
Away · Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 66/113
- Pass yds
- 700
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.2
- Sacks
- 8
Jaylen Warren
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 38
- Rush yds
- 216
- YPC
- 5.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 10
- Rush share
- 56.7%
Rico Dowdle
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 37
- YPC
- 2.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 22.4%
DK Metcalf
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 98
- YPR
- 8.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 22.9%
Roman Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 114
- YPR
- 10.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.1%
Home · Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 56/82
- Pass yds
- 587
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.2
- Sacks
- 9
Quinshon Judkins
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 42
- Rush yds
- 124
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 56%
Raheim Sanders
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 4
- Rush yds
- 22
- YPC
- 5.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 8
- Rush share
- 5.3%
KC Concepcion
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 80
- YPR
- 6.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 24.4%
Harold Fannin Jr.
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 126
- YPR
- 9
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 22%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 3 gamesAway · Pittsburgh Steelers
Home · Cleveland Browns
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · PIT
passingPittsburgh Steelers ranks in the 19th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · PIT
efficiencyPittsburgh Steelers ranks in the 52th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Passing profile · CLE
passingCleveland Browns ranks in the 3th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · CLE
efficiencyCleveland Browns ranks in the 84th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo favors Pittsburgh Steelers at 62.9%.
- Rolling efficiency favors Pittsburgh Steelers at 66.3%.
- The calibrated estimate is 61%; it is a probability, not a certainty.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Pittsburgh Steelers and 3 for Cleveland Browns; prior-season form is still blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
- The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.
Model Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: the v0.3 ensemble places Pittsburgh Steelers at 61% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Pittsburgh Steelers and 3 for Cleveland Browns; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (61%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.