NFL Week 4 slate →NFL dashboard →

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETDAL @ HOU
Dallas Cowboys

Away

Dallas Cowboys

1-2

Houston Texans

Home

Houston Texans

0-3

Model Win Probability

Dallas Cowboys · Away

38%

Model
separation24%

Houston Texans · Home

62%

Signal: Lean· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
33% DAL
Efficiency component
50% DAL
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

97
32
Offense
94
39
Passing
71
3
Rushing
0
94
Defense
58
71
Pass Rush
81
22
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

DALMetricHOU
0.137EPA / Play-0.044
48.2%Success Rate41.5%
0.236Dropback EPA0.044
-0.049Rush EPA-0.214
11.3%Explosive Play Rate10.9%
46.9%3rd Down Conversion40.7%
61.4%Red Zone TD Rate46.6%
0.173Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.100

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Reliant Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Surface
astroturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Houston Texans home game

Player Impact

Dak Prescott

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

CMP/ATT
73/105
Pass yds
730
Pass TD
7
INT
1
Y/A
7
Sacks
3

Javonte Williams

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
43
Rush yds
169
YPC
3.9
Rush TD
2
Targets
12
Rec
10
Rush share
62.3%

Tyler Goodson

RB

2026 Week 3

Carries
6
Rush yds
22
YPC
3.7
Rush TD
0
Targets
1
Rec
1
Rush share
8.7%

CeeDee Lamb

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
25
Rec
20
Rec yds
309
YPR
15.4
Rec TD
3
Target share
24.8%

George Pickens

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
25
Rec
16
Rec yds
150
YPR
9.4
Rec TD
0
Target share
24.8%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 3 games

Away · Dallas Cowboys

Q1
20
Q2
17
Q3
25
Q4
26

Home · Houston Texans

Q1
7
Q2
24
Q3
3
Q4
20

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · DAL

passing

Dallas Cowboys ranks in the 94th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · DAL

efficiency

Dallas Cowboys ranks in the 0th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Passing profile · HOU

passing

Houston Texans ranks in the 39th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · HOU

efficiency

Houston Texans ranks in the 94th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo favors Houston Texans at 67.4%.
  • Rolling efficiency favors Houston Texans at 50.5%.
  • The calibrated estimate is 62%; it is a probability, not a certainty.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Dallas Cowboys and 3 for Houston Texans; prior-season form is still blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
  • The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.

Model Analysis

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: the v0.3 ensemble places Houston Texans at 62% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Dallas Cowboys and 3 for Houston Texans; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Houston Texans (62%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.