Away
Denver Broncos
2-1
Home
San Francisco 49ers
3-0
Model Win Probability
Denver Broncos · Away
45%
separation10%
San Francisco 49ers · Home
55%
- Elo component
- 47% DEN
- Efficiency component
- 40% DEN
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| DEN | Metric | SF |
|---|---|---|
| -0.009 | EPA / Play | 0.131 |
| 42.2% | Success Rate | 49.8% |
| 0.049 | Dropback EPA | 0.281 |
| -0.090 | Rush EPA | -0.071 |
| 10.9% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.9% |
| 41.8% | 3rd Down Conversion | 53.8% |
| 62.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 75.1% |
| -0.047 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.039 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Levi's Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- San Francisco 49ers home game
Player Impact
Bo Nix
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 56/93
- Pass yds
- 605
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.5
- Sacks
- 5
J.K. Dobbins
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 121
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 51.5%
Jonah Coleman
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yds
- 39
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 14.7%
Jaylen Waddle
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 150
- YPR
- 13.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 23%
Courtland Sutton
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 82
- YPR
- 10.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18.4%
Away · Denver Broncos
Bo Nix
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 56/93
- Pass yds
- 605
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.5
- Sacks
- 5
J.K. Dobbins
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 121
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 51.5%
Jonah Coleman
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yds
- 39
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 14.7%
Jaylen Waddle
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 150
- YPR
- 13.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 23%
Courtland Sutton
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 82
- YPR
- 10.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18.4%
Home · San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 60/83
- Pass yds
- 789
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 9.5
- Sacks
- 0
Christian McCaffrey
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 166
- YPC
- 4.7
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 13
- Rush share
- 43.8%
Kaelon Black
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 25
- Rush yds
- 107
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 31.2%
Mike Evans
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 137
- YPR
- 11.4
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 19.8%
George Kittle
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 174
- YPR
- 14.5
- Rec TD
- 3
- Target share
- 19.8%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 3 gamesAway · Denver Broncos
Home · San Francisco 49ers
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Sean McVay won't play 'victim card' after questionable pass interference call in Rams loss to Broncos: 'It is what it is'
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · DEN / LA
- Sean McVay apologizes for Sunday night press conference cameo
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 2h ago · DEN / LA
- McVay's Rams not a 'victim' of pass interference call in loss
ESPN NFL · 3h ago · DEN / LA
- Sean McVay issues apology about abrupt Rams postgame presser exit
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · DEN / LA
- Bears-Eagles game thread: A couple of potential 49ers playoff opponents
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · CHI / PHI / SF
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · DEN
passingDenver Broncos ranks in the 45th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · DEN
efficiencyDenver Broncos ranks in the 74th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Passing profile · SF
passingSan Francisco 49ers ranks in the 100th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · SF
efficiencySan Francisco 49ers ranks in the 35th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo favors San Francisco 49ers at 52.7%.
- Rolling efficiency favors San Francisco 49ers at 60.3%.
- The calibrated estimate is 55%; it is a probability, not a certainty.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Denver Broncos and 3 for San Francisco 49ers; prior-season form is still blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
- The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.
Model Analysis
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers: the v0.3 ensemble places San Francisco 49ers at 55% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Denver Broncos and 3 for San Francisco 49ers; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: San Francisco 49ers (55%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.