Away
Detroit Lions
2-1
Home
Carolina Panthers
1-2
Model Win Probability
Detroit Lions · Away
63%
separation26%
Carolina Panthers · Home
37%
- Elo component
- 70% DET
- Efficiency component
- 58% DET
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| DET | Metric | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 0.092 | EPA / Play | -0.022 |
| 46.8% | Success Rate | 42.8% |
| 0.212 | Dropback EPA | 0.045 |
| -0.088 | Rush EPA | -0.130 |
| 13.8% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.8% |
| 40.7% | 3rd Down Conversion | 38.3% |
| 69.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 61.0% |
| 0.064 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.040 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Bank of America Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Carolina Panthers home game
Player Impact
Jared Goff
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 77/109
- Pass yds
- 802
- Pass TD
- 8
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 7
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 65
- Rush yds
- 307
- YPC
- 4.7
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 18
- Rush share
- 78.3%
Sione Vaki
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 40
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 10.8%
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 228
- YPR
- 9.9
- Rec TD
- 5
- Target share
- 32.4%
Sam LaPorta
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 144
- YPR
- 10.3
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.6%
Away · Detroit Lions
Jared Goff
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 77/109
- Pass yds
- 802
- Pass TD
- 8
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 7
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 65
- Rush yds
- 307
- YPC
- 4.7
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 18
- Rush share
- 78.3%
Sione Vaki
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 40
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 10.8%
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 228
- YPR
- 9.9
- Rec TD
- 5
- Target share
- 32.4%
Sam LaPorta
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 144
- YPR
- 10.3
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.6%
Home · Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 72/121
- Pass yds
- 939
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 7.8
- Sacks
- 7
Chuba Hubbard
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 41
- Rush yds
- 184
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 61.2%
AJ Dillon
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 12
- Rush yds
- 41
- YPC
- 3.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 17.9%
Tetairoa McMillan
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 193
- YPR
- 16.1
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 21.3%
Jalen Coker
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 222
- YPR
- 12.3
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 20.4%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Detroit Lions
Ben BartchG
OUTFoot; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
D.J. ReedCB
QUESTIONABLERib; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Home · Carolina Panthers
Xavier LegetteWR
OUTKnee; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Damien LewisG
OUTElbow; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Jalen CokerWR
QUESTIONABLEQuad; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Monroe FreelingOT
QUESTIONABLEConcussion; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Lee HunterDT
QUESTIONABLEFoot; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Cam JacksonDT
QUESTIONABLEKnee; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 3 gamesAway · Detroit Lions
Home · Carolina Panthers
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Panthers Injury Report & Transactions – Week 10
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · CAR
- A.J. Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson among Patriots questionable for Sunday vs. Lions
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 7h ago · DET / NE
- Lions list Amon-Ra St. Brown as questionable vs. Patriots in Germany
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 8h ago · DET / NE
- Is Chuba Hubbard the biggest X factor to spark a Panthers turnaround?
ESPN NFL · 8h ago · CAR
- Panthers vs Packers: Matchups to watch
Yahoo Sports NFL · 16d ago · CAR / GB
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · DET
passingDetroit Lions ranks in the 87th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · DET
efficiencyDetroit Lions ranks in the 26th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Passing profile · CAR
passingCarolina Panthers ranks in the 42th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · CAR
efficiencyCarolina Panthers ranks in the 32th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo favors Detroit Lions at 70.1%.
- Rolling efficiency favors Detroit Lions at 57.7%.
- The calibrated estimate is 63%; it is a probability, not a certainty.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Detroit Lions and 3 for Carolina Panthers; prior-season form is still blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
- The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.
Model Analysis
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: the v0.3 ensemble places Detroit Lions at 63% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Detroit Lions and 3 for Carolina Panthers; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Detroit Lions (63%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.