Away
Green Bay Packers
1-2
Home
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-3
Model Win Probability
Green Bay Packers · Away
54%
separation8%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Home
46%
- Elo component
- 54% GB
- Efficiency component
- 62% GB
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| GB | Metric | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 0.064 | EPA / Play | -0.046 |
| 44.7% | Success Rate | 41.7% |
| 0.200 | Dropback EPA | -0.003 |
| -0.192 | Rush EPA | -0.077 |
| 13.5% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.2% |
| 44.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 39.3% |
| 55.8% | Red Zone TD Rate | 49.9% |
| 0.053 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.012 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Raymond James Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 10 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers home game
Player Impact
Jordan Love
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 65/124
- Pass yds
- 844
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.8
- Sacks
- 8
MarShawn Lloyd
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 23
- Rush yds
- 68
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 47.9%
Kaleb Johnson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 12
- Rush yds
- 38
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 25%
Matthew Golden
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 253
- YPR
- 16.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 25%
Christian Watson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 284
- YPR
- 16.7
- Rec TD
- 4
- Target share
- 24.2%
Away · Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 65/124
- Pass yds
- 844
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.8
- Sacks
- 8
MarShawn Lloyd
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 23
- Rush yds
- 68
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 47.9%
Kaleb Johnson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 12
- Rush yds
- 38
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 25%
Matthew Golden
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 253
- YPR
- 16.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 25%
Christian Watson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 284
- YPR
- 16.7
- Rec TD
- 4
- Target share
- 24.2%
Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 61/96
- Pass yds
- 615
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.4
- Sacks
- 13
Jalon Daniels
QB2026 Week 3
- CMP/ATT
- 0/3
- Pass yds
- 0
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 0
- Sacks
- 0
Bucky Irving
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 40
- Rush yds
- 180
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 13
- Rush share
- 60.6%
Kenny Gainwell
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 10
- Rush yds
- 21
- YPC
- 2.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 6
- Rush share
- 15.2%
Emeka Egbuka
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 141
- YPR
- 10.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 21.1%
Cade Otton
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 120
- YPR
- 10.9
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.9%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Green Bay Packers
Aaron BanksG
OUTKnee/toe; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Jacob MonkOL
OUTQuad; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Warren BrinsonDT
OUTCalf/groin; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Anthony CampbellDT
OUTAnkle; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Jager BurtonOL
QUESTIONABLEGroin; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker MayfieldQB
OUTRight thumb; out for Week 4.
Jalon Daniels will make his first NFL start; Easton Stick is the backup, per the Buccaneers.
Ko KieftTE
OUTElbow; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Rueben Bain Jr.OLB
OUTGroin/shoulder; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Benjamin MorrisonCB
OUTQuad; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Rakeem Nunez-RochesDL
QUESTIONABLEAnkle/foot; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
SirVocea DennisLB
QUESTIONABLECalf/personal; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Jacob ParrishCB
QUESTIONABLEPersonal; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Jalen McMillanWR
IRKnee; placed on injured reserve on September 30.
Unavailable for Week 4.
Bucky IrvingRB
FULLGlute; full participation Friday and no Week 4 game designation.
Available according to Tampa Bay's final practice report.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 3 gamesAway · Green Bay Packers
Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Love throws for 5K yards? Mendoza shines in Vegas? Don't be surprised!
ESPN NFL · just now · GB
- On Kirk Cousins (and Packers Week, Too!)
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · GB
- First Cousins: QB to get start vs. Packers in Vikings return
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · GB / MIN
- Vikings-Packers Final Injury Report
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · GB / MIN
- Vikings name Week 10 starter vs Packers after Kirk Cousins trade
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · GB / MIN
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · GB
passingGreen Bay Packers ranks in the 84th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · GB
efficiencyGreen Bay Packers ranks in the 29th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Passing profile · TB
passingTampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 23th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · TB
efficiencyTampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 55th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo favors Green Bay Packers at 53.9%.
- Rolling efficiency favors Green Bay Packers at 61.9%.
- The calibrated estimate is 54%; it is a probability, not a certainty.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Green Bay Packers and 3 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; prior-season form is still blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
- The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.
Model Analysis
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the v0.3 ensemble places Green Bay Packers at 54% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Green Bay Packers and 3 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Green Bay Packers (54%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.