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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETGB @ TB
Green Bay Packers

Away

Green Bay Packers

1-2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-3

Model Win Probability

Green Bay Packers · Away

54%

Model
separation8%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Home

46%

Signal: Unrated· components agree · 100% feature coverage · starting-QB status unresolved
Elo component
54% GB
Efficiency component
62% GB
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

71
29
Offense
84
23
Passing
6
52
Rushing
29
55
Defense
55
23
Pass Rush
60
20
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

GBMetricTB
0.064EPA / Play-0.046
44.7%Success Rate41.7%
0.200Dropback EPA-0.003
-0.192Rush EPA-0.077
13.5%Explosive Play Rate10.2%
44.2%3rd Down Conversion39.3%
55.8%Red Zone TD Rate49.9%
0.053Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.012

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
10 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Tampa Bay Buccaneers home game

Player Impact

Jordan Love

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

CMP/ATT
65/124
Pass yds
844
Pass TD
6
INT
2
Y/A
6.8
Sacks
8

MarShawn Lloyd

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
23
Rush yds
68
YPC
3
Rush TD
0
Targets
6
Rec
4
Rush share
47.9%

Kaleb Johnson

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
12
Rush yds
38
YPC
3.2
Rush TD
0
Targets
3
Rec
1
Rush share
25%

Matthew Golden

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
30
Rec
15
Rec yds
253
YPR
16.9
Rec TD
1
Target share
25%

Christian Watson

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
29
Rec
17
Rec yds
284
YPR
16.7
Rec TD
4
Target share
24.2%

Injuries & Availability

Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker MayfieldQB

OUT

Dislocated thumb; expected to miss at least three weeks.

Jalon Daniels is expected to start Week 4. The model has no explicit quarterback adjustment.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 3 games

Away · Green Bay Packers

Q1
16
Q2
17
Q3
3
Q4
17

Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Q1
16
Q2
13
Q3
20
Q4
13

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · GB

passing

Green Bay Packers ranks in the 84th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · GB

efficiency

Green Bay Packers ranks in the 29th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Passing profile · TB

passing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 23th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · TB

efficiency

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 55th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo favors Green Bay Packers at 53.9%.
  • Rolling efficiency favors Green Bay Packers at 61.9%.
  • The calibrated estimate is 54%; it is a probability, not a certainty.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Green Bay Packers and 3 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; prior-season form is still blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
  • The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.

Model Analysis

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the v0.3 ensemble places Green Bay Packers at 54% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Green Bay Packers and 3 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Green Bay Packers (54%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.