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Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday Late · Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ETKC @ LV
Kansas City Chiefs

Away

Kansas City Chiefs

3-0

Las Vegas Raiders

Home

Las Vegas Raiders

3-0

Model Win Probability

Kansas City Chiefs · Away

67%

Model
separation34%

Las Vegas Raiders · Home

33%

Signal: Moderate· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
69% KC
Efficiency component
76% KC
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

74
3
Offense
61
13
Passing
87
0
Rushing
71
68
Defense
48
77
Pass Rush
54
28
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

KCMetricLV
0.066EPA / Play-0.146
45.5%Success Rate38.9%
0.122Dropback EPA-0.046
-0.021Rush EPA-0.287
11.8%Explosive Play Rate9.7%
41.9%3rd Down Conversion38.5%
56.8%Red Zone TD Rate53.9%
-0.045Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.043

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Roof
dome
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Las Vegas Raiders home game

Player Impact

Patrick Mahomes

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

CMP/ATT
67/98
Pass yds
812
Pass TD
7
INT
2
Y/A
8.3
Sacks
4

Kenneth Walker III

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
65
Rush yds
360
YPC
5.5
Rush TD
2
Targets
18
Rec
11
Rush share
70.7%

Emmett Johnson

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
16
Rush yds
56
YPC
3.5
Rush TD
0
Targets
4
Rec
4
Rush share
17.4%

Travis Kelce

TE

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
18
Rec
14
Rec yds
231
YPR
16.5
Rec TD
2
Target share
19.8%

Rashee Rice

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
17
Rec
13
Rec yds
190
YPR
14.6
Rec TD
1
Target share
18.7%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 3 games

Away · Kansas City Chiefs

Q1
24
Q2
21
Q3
17
Q4
20

Home · Las Vegas Raiders

Q1
10
Q2
33
Q3
23
Q4
22

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · KC

passing

Kansas City Chiefs ranks in the 61th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · KC

efficiency

Kansas City Chiefs ranks in the 71th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Passing profile · LV

passing

Las Vegas Raiders ranks in the 13th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · LV

efficiency

Las Vegas Raiders ranks in the 68th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo favors Kansas City Chiefs at 68.7%.
  • Rolling efficiency favors Kansas City Chiefs at 76.3%.
  • The calibrated estimate is 67%; it is a probability, not a certainty.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Kansas City Chiefs and 3 for Las Vegas Raiders; prior-season form is still blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
  • The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.

Model Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: the v0.3 ensemble places Kansas City Chiefs at 67% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Kansas City Chiefs and 3 for Las Vegas Raiders; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Kansas City Chiefs (67%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.