Away
Los Angeles Chargers
0-3
Home
Seattle Seahawks
2-1
Model Win Probability
Los Angeles Chargers · Away
27%
separation46%
Seattle Seahawks · Home
73%
- Elo component
- 24% LAC
- Efficiency component
- 24% LAC
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| LAC | Metric | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| -0.071 | EPA / Play | 0.060 |
| 42.8% | Success Rate | 46.6% |
| -0.002 | Dropback EPA | 0.233 |
| -0.147 | Rush EPA | -0.141 |
| 11.0% | Explosive Play Rate | 14.0% |
| 42.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 40.5% |
| 49.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 57.2% |
| -0.058 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.136 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Lumen Field
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Seattle Seahawks home game
Player Impact
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 52/88
- Pass yds
- 627
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7.1
- Sacks
- 8
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 50
- Rush yds
- 193
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 61.7%
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 85
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 21%
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 64
- YPR
- 10.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 19.8%
Tre Harris
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 149
- YPR
- 14.9
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18.6%
Away · Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 52/88
- Pass yds
- 627
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7.1
- Sacks
- 8
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 50
- Rush yds
- 193
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 2
- Rush share
- 61.7%
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 85
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 21%
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 64
- YPR
- 10.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 19.8%
Tre Harris
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 149
- YPR
- 14.9
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18.6%
Home · Seattle Seahawks
Drew Lock
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- CMP/ATT
- 35/48
- Pass yds
- 422
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 8.8
- Sacks
- 2
Emanuel Wilson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 32
- Rush yds
- 109
- YPC
- 3.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 40%
Jadarian Price
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 119
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 35%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 36
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 405
- YPR
- 15
- Rec TD
- 6
- Target share
- 37.9%
AJ Barner
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 90
- YPR
- 11.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 12.6%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 3 gamesAway · Los Angeles Chargers
Home · Seattle Seahawks
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Jim Harbaugh still trusts Mike McDaniel, wants Justin Herbert to 'be better'
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · LAC
- Harbaugh offers rare critique of struggling QB Herbert: 'Be better'
ESPN NFL · 3h ago · LAC
- 😈 Ravens poke fun after win in Rio, topping trolls
ESPN NFL · 3h ago · BAL / SEA / WAS
- Macdonald: Seahawks still trust RB Price, who must 'take care of the ball'
ESPN NFL · 3h ago · SEA
- Jim Harbaugh: Justin Herbert needs to "be better" in his decision-making
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 5h ago · LAC
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · LAC
passingLos Angeles Chargers ranks in the 29th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · LAC
efficiencyLos Angeles Chargers ranks in the 81th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Passing profile · SEA
passingSeattle Seahawks ranks in the 90th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · SEA
efficiencySeattle Seahawks ranks in the 100th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo favors Seattle Seahawks at 75.6%.
- Rolling efficiency favors Seattle Seahawks at 76.3%.
- The calibrated estimate is 73%; it is a probability, not a certainty.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Los Angeles Chargers and 3 for Seattle Seahawks; prior-season form is still blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
- The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.
Model Analysis
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: the v0.3 ensemble places Seattle Seahawks at 73% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Los Angeles Chargers and 3 for Seattle Seahawks; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Seattle Seahawks (73%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.