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Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETLA @ PHI
Los Angeles Rams

Away

Los Angeles Rams

1-2

Philadelphia Eagles

Home

Philadelphia Eagles

2-1

Model Win Probability

Los Angeles Rams · Away

52%

Model
separation4%

Philadelphia Eagles · Home

48%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
45% LA
Efficiency component
73% LA
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

90
58
Offense
81
65
Passing
84
61
Rushing
77
65
Defense
68
35
Pass Rush
55
68
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

LAMetricPHI
0.104EPA / Play0.033
49.7%Success Rate41.8%
0.178Dropback EPA0.125
-0.026Rush EPA-0.066
15.0%Explosive Play Rate12.0%
41.5%3rd Down Conversion41.5%
59.2%Red Zone TD Rate68.7%
-0.050Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.029

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
6 days
Site
Philadelphia Eagles home game

Player Impact

Matthew Stafford

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

CMP/ATT
67/111
Pass yds
872
Pass TD
6
INT
4
Y/A
7.9
Sacks
5

Kyren Williams

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
38
Rush yds
214
YPC
5.6
Rush TD
1
Targets
12
Rec
11
Rush share
47.5%

Blake Corum

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
28
Rush yds
148
YPC
5.3
Rush TD
0
Targets
5
Rec
3
Rush share
35%

Davante Adams

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
29
Rec
18
Rec yds
358
YPR
19.9
Rec TD
2
Target share
27.4%

Tyler Higbee

TE

2026 Weeks 1, 3

Targets
13
Rec
10
Rec yds
74
YPR
7.4
Rec TD
1
Target share
12.3%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 3 games

Away · Los Angeles Rams

Q1
14
Q2
23
Q3
7
Q4
17

Home · Philadelphia Eagles

Q1
0
Q2
35
Q3
6
Q4
14

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · LA

passing

Los Angeles Rams ranks in the 81th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · LA

efficiency

Los Angeles Rams ranks in the 77th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Passing profile · PHI

passing

Philadelphia Eagles ranks in the 65th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · PHI

efficiency

Philadelphia Eagles ranks in the 65th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo favors Los Angeles Rams at 45.1%.
  • Rolling efficiency favors Los Angeles Rams at 72.9%.
  • The calibrated estimate is 52%; it is a probability, not a certainty.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Los Angeles Rams and 2 for Philadelphia Eagles; prior-season form is still blended in.
  • The model components disagree on the winner; the displayed favorite is not a high-agreement signal.
  • The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.

Model Analysis

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: the v0.3 ensemble places Los Angeles Rams at 52% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Los Angeles Rams and 2 for Philadelphia Eagles; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Los Angeles Rams (52%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.