Away
Miami Dolphins
0-3
Home
Minnesota Vikings
3-0
Model Win Probability
Miami Dolphins · Away
27%
separation46%
Minnesota Vikings · Home
73%
- Elo component
- 20% MIA
- Efficiency component
- 37% MIA
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| MIA | Metric | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| -0.053 | EPA / Play | -0.110 |
| 40.2% | Success Rate | 39.9% |
| -0.003 | Dropback EPA | -0.107 |
| -0.121 | Rush EPA | -0.121 |
| 12.3% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.0% |
| 37.5% | 3rd Down Conversion | 34.4% |
| 50.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 60.7% |
| 0.109 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.124 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- U.S. Bank Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- sportturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Minnesota Vikings home game
Player Impact
Malik Willis
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 49/86
- Pass yds
- 627
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 9
De'Von Achane
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 34
- Rush yds
- 127
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 43.6%
Ollie Gordon II
RB2026 Weeks 2, 3
- Carries
- 20
- Rush yds
- 48
- YPC
- 2.4
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 25.6%
Malik Washington
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 152
- YPR
- 12.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 27.1%
Greg Dulcich
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 90
- YPR
- 10
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 14.1%
Away · Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 49/86
- Pass yds
- 627
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 9
De'Von Achane
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 34
- Rush yds
- 127
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 43.6%
Ollie Gordon II
RB2026 Weeks 2, 3
- Carries
- 20
- Rush yds
- 48
- YPC
- 2.4
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 25.6%
Malik Washington
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 152
- YPR
- 12.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 27.1%
Greg Dulcich
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 90
- YPR
- 10
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 14.1%
Home · Minnesota Vikings
Carson Wentz
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- CMP/ATT
- 23/39
- Pass yds
- 276
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.1
- Sacks
- 6
Aaron Jones
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 52
- Rush yds
- 203
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 61.2%
Jordan Mason
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 59
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 17.6%
Justin Jefferson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 179
- YPR
- 13.8
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 25.4%
Jordan Addison
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 111
- YPR
- 15.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 23.9%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 3 gamesAway · Miami Dolphins
Home · Minnesota Vikings
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Vikings WR Jefferson avoids serious injury, could play this week
ESPN NFL · 3h ago · MIA / MIN
- Giants trade for Vikings QB McCarthy, but say Winston remains QB1
ESPN NFL · 3h ago · MIN / NYG
- Miami Dolphins Fans Take On Game Three
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · KC / MIA
- Sources: Dolphins' Achane tore ACL, to miss rest of season
ESPN NFL · 6h ago · KC / MIA
- Grading NFL trades: Who won the J.J. McCarthy deal, Giants or Vikings?
ESPN NFL · 8h ago · MIN / NYG
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · MIA
passingMiami Dolphins ranks in the 26th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · MIA
efficiencyMiami Dolphins ranks in the 6th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Passing profile · MIN
passingMinnesota Vikings ranks in the 6th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · MIN
efficiencyMinnesota Vikings ranks in the 97th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo favors Minnesota Vikings at 80.4%.
- Rolling efficiency favors Minnesota Vikings at 63.1%.
- The calibrated estimate is 73%; it is a probability, not a certainty.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Miami Dolphins and 3 for Minnesota Vikings; prior-season form is still blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
- The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.
Model Analysis
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings: the v0.3 ensemble places Minnesota Vikings at 73% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Miami Dolphins and 3 for Minnesota Vikings; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Minnesota Vikings (73%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.