Away
New England Patriots
1-2
Home
Buffalo Bills
3-0
Model Win Probability
New England Patriots · Away
31%
separation38%
Buffalo Bills · Home
69%
- Elo component
- 27% NE
- Efficiency component
- 34% NE
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NE | Metric | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 0.040 | EPA / Play | 0.162 |
| 44.7% | Success Rate | 48.9% |
| 0.157 | Dropback EPA | 0.241 |
| -0.128 | Rush EPA | 0.029 |
| 13.1% | Explosive Play Rate | 15.7% |
| 41.5% | 3rd Down Conversion | 51.3% |
| 48.2% | Red Zone TD Rate | 70.4% |
| -0.068 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.022 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Highmark Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- a_turf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Buffalo Bills home game
Player Impact
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 51/80
- Pass yds
- 585
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 6
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 9
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 31
- Rush yds
- 116
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 36.5%
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 2, 3
- Carries
- 24
- Rush yds
- 99
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 28.2%
Mack Hollins
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 156
- YPR
- 13
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 19.5%
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 67
- YPR
- 9.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.1%
Away · New England Patriots
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 51/80
- Pass yds
- 585
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 6
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 9
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 31
- Rush yds
- 116
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 36.5%
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 2, 3
- Carries
- 24
- Rush yds
- 99
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 28.2%
Mack Hollins
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 156
- YPR
- 13
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 19.5%
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 67
- YPR
- 9.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.1%
Home · Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 56/86
- Pass yds
- 786
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 9.1
- Sacks
- 8
James Cook
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 58
- Rush yds
- 346
- YPC
- 6
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 64.4%
Frank Gore Jr.
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 1
- Rush yds
- 3
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 1.1%
DJ Moore
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 167
- YPR
- 15.2
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 22%
Dalton Kincaid
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 263
- YPR
- 18.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 20.7%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 3 gamesAway · New England Patriots
Home · Buffalo Bills
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Plenty of records from Bills in Week 3 win
Yahoo Sports NFL · 7h ago · BUF
- Joe Brady provides minor injury update on Josh Allen
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · BUF
- Bills enter Week 4 matchup vs. Patriots with favorable odds
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · BUF / NE
- Mike Brown, Jeremiah Pharms Jr. revert to Patriots’ practice squad following Week 3
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · NE
- Mike Vrabel explains Patriots’ O-line usage after Greg Van Roten injury
Yahoo Sports NFL · 9h ago · NE
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · NE
passingNew England Patriots ranks in the 74th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · NE
efficiencyNew England Patriots ranks in the 87th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Passing profile · BUF
passingBuffalo Bills ranks in the 97th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · BUF
efficiencyBuffalo Bills ranks in the 45th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo favors Buffalo Bills at 72.8%.
- Rolling efficiency favors Buffalo Bills at 66.4%.
- The calibrated estimate is 69%; it is a probability, not a certainty.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for New England Patriots and 3 for Buffalo Bills; prior-season form is still blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
- The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.
Model Analysis
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: the v0.3 ensemble places Buffalo Bills at 69% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for New England Patriots and 3 for Buffalo Bills; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Buffalo Bills (69%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.