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New York Jets at Chicago Bears

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETNYJ @ CHI
New York Jets

Away

New York Jets

1-2

Chicago Bears

Home

Chicago Bears

2-1

Model Win Probability

New York Jets · Away

23%

Model
separation54%

Chicago Bears · Home

77%

Signal: Unrated· components agree · 100% feature coverage · starting-QB status unresolved
Elo component
21% NYJ
Efficiency component
19% NYJ
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

13
84
Offense
16
71
Passing
10
81
Rushing
13
42
Defense
6
26
Pass Rush
20
71
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

NYJMetricCHI
-0.087EPA / Play0.079
41.1%Success Rate44.8%
-0.040Dropback EPA0.152
-0.177Rush EPA-0.036
9.5%Explosive Play Rate13.7%
37.1%3rd Down Conversion44.9%
52.0%Red Zone TD Rate59.4%
0.103Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.034

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Soldier Field
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
6 days
Site
Chicago Bears home game

Player Impact

Geno Smith

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

CMP/ATT
77/102
Pass yds
783
Pass TD
4
INT
0
Y/A
7.7
Sacks
9

Breece Hall

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
51
Rush yds
163
YPC
3.2
Rush TD
1
Targets
10
Rec
10
Rush share
60%

Braelon Allen

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
19
Rush yds
61
YPC
3.2
Rush TD
1
Targets
5
Rec
4
Rush share
22.4%

Garrett Wilson

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
27
Rec
21
Rec yds
243
YPR
11.6
Rec TD
2
Target share
28.4%

Adonai Mitchell

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2

Targets
15
Rec
9
Rec yds
123
YPR
13.7
Rec TD
0
Target share
15.8%

Injuries & Availability

Home · Chicago Bears

Caleb WilliamsQB

UNKNOWN

Hamstring injury; ruled out for Week 3, with no Week 4 game designation yet.

The Week 4 starting-QB situation is not captured by the statistical model.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 3 games

Away · New York Jets

Q1
7
Q2
17
Q3
20
Q4
20

Home · Chicago Bears

Q1
24
Q2
20
Q3
24
Q4
21

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · NYJ

passing

New York Jets ranks in the 16th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · NYJ

efficiency

New York Jets ranks in the 13th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Passing profile · CHI

passing

Chicago Bears ranks in the 71th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · CHI

efficiency

Chicago Bears ranks in the 42th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo favors Chicago Bears at 78.9%.
  • Rolling efficiency favors Chicago Bears at 81.4%.
  • The calibrated estimate is 77%; it is a probability, not a certainty.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for New York Jets and 2 for Chicago Bears; prior-season form is still blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
  • The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.

Model Analysis

New York Jets at Chicago Bears: the v0.3 ensemble places Chicago Bears at 77% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for New York Jets and 2 for Chicago Bears; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Chicago Bears (77%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.