Away
New York Jets
1-2
Home
Chicago Bears
2-1
Model Win Probability
New York Jets · Away
23%
separation54%
Chicago Bears · Home
77%
- Elo component
- 21% NYJ
- Efficiency component
- 19% NYJ
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NYJ | Metric | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| -0.087 | EPA / Play | 0.079 |
| 41.1% | Success Rate | 44.8% |
| -0.040 | Dropback EPA | 0.152 |
| -0.177 | Rush EPA | -0.036 |
| 9.5% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.7% |
| 37.1% | 3rd Down Conversion | 44.9% |
| 52.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 59.4% |
| 0.103 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.034 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Soldier Field
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 6 days
- Site
- Chicago Bears home game
Player Impact
Geno Smith
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 77/102
- Pass yds
- 783
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.7
- Sacks
- 9
Breece Hall
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 51
- Rush yds
- 163
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 10
- Rush share
- 60%
Braelon Allen
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 19
- Rush yds
- 61
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 22.4%
Garrett Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 243
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 28.4%
Adonai Mitchell
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 123
- YPR
- 13.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 15.8%
Away · New York Jets
Geno Smith
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 77/102
- Pass yds
- 783
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.7
- Sacks
- 9
Breece Hall
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 51
- Rush yds
- 163
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 10
- Rush share
- 60%
Braelon Allen
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 19
- Rush yds
- 61
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 22.4%
Garrett Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 243
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 28.4%
Adonai Mitchell
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 123
- YPR
- 13.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 15.8%
Home · Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- CMP/ATT
- 36/55
- Pass yds
- 407
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 5
Case Keenum
QB2026 Week 3
- CMP/ATT
- 24/34
- Pass yds
- 247
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 0
D'Andre Swift
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 54
- Rush yds
- 253
- YPC
- 4.7
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 8
- Rush share
- 51.4%
Kyle Monangai
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 30
- Rush yds
- 178
- YPC
- 5.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 28.6%
Luther Burden III
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 156
- YPR
- 10.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 25.6%
Kalif Raymond
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 214
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 23.3%
Injuries & Availability
Away · New York Jets
Breece HallRB
OUTQuad; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Adonai MitchellWR
OUTFinger; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Mason TaylorTE
OUTThumb; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Dylan ParhamG
OUTKnee; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Francisco MauigoaLB
OUTQuad; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Kenyon SadiqTE
QUESTIONABLEBack; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Kingsley EnagbareEDGE
QUESTIONABLEKnee; questionable for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Home · Chicago Bears
Caleb WilliamsQB
OUTHamstring; out for Week 4.
Tyson Bagent is reportedly likely to start; Chicago has not officially named its starter.
Braxton JonesOL
OUTKnee; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Shemar TurnerDL
OUTKnee; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Noah SewellLB
OUTAchilles; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Kyler GordonDB
OUTCalf; out for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Cam LewisDB
DOUBTFULHip; doubtful for Week 4.
Official Week 4 game designation; final active list is due before kickoff.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 3 gamesAway · New York Jets
Home · Chicago Bears
Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.
Latest News
- Buffalo Bills safety Amani Hooker will make his debut Week 10 vs. NY Jets
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · BUF / NYJ
- Bills RT Spencer Brown is doubtful with ankle injury
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 3h ago · BUF / NYJ
- Bills RT Spencer Brown is doubtful with ankle injury
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · BUF / NYJ
- NFC North real or not: Bears a solid favorite? Cousins puts Vikings in command?
ESPN NFL · 6h ago · CHI / MIN
- Aaron Glenn expects Garrett Wilson to clear concussion protocol, play vs. Bills
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 8h ago · BUF / NYJ
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · NYJ
passingNew York Jets ranks in the 16th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · NYJ
efficiencyNew York Jets ranks in the 13th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Passing profile · CHI
passingChicago Bears ranks in the 71th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.
Defense profile · CHI
efficiencyChicago Bears ranks in the 42th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo favors Chicago Bears at 78.9%.
- Rolling efficiency favors Chicago Bears at 81.4%.
- The calibrated estimate is 77%; it is a probability, not a certainty.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for New York Jets and 2 for Chicago Bears; prior-season form is still blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
- The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.
Model Analysis
New York Jets at Chicago Bears: the v0.3 ensemble places Chicago Bears at 77% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for New York Jets and 2 for Chicago Bears; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Chicago Bears (77%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.