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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETTEN @ BAL
Tennessee Titans

Away

Tennessee Titans

0-3

Baltimore Ravens

Home

Baltimore Ravens

2-1

Model Win Probability

Tennessee Titans · Away

19%

Model
separation62%

Baltimore Ravens · Home

81%

Signal: Strong· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
13% TEN
Efficiency component
23% TEN
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

6
81
Offense
0
68
Passing
42
94
Rushing
19
48
Defense
61
42
Pass Rush
24
35
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

TENMetricBAL
-0.137EPA / Play0.076
38.8%Success Rate46.7%
-0.151Dropback EPA0.145
-0.109Rush EPA0.028
9.7%Explosive Play Rate14.8%
34.5%3rd Down Conversion40.5%
56.4%Red Zone TD Rate54.5%
0.082Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.017

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Baltimore Ravens home game

Player Impact

Cam Ward

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

CMP/ATT
55/88
Pass yds
504
Pass TD
2
INT
1
Y/A
5.7
Sacks
5

Tony Pollard

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
38
Rush yds
173
YPC
4.6
Rush TD
0
Targets
7
Rec
6
Rush share
59.4%

Tyjae Spears

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
13
Rush yds
58
YPC
4.5
Rush TD
0
Targets
6
Rec
4
Rush share
20.3%

Carnell Tate

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
20
Rec
13
Rec yds
123
YPR
9.5
Rec TD
0
Target share
25%

Wan'Dale Robinson

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
18
Rec
13
Rec yds
104
YPR
8
Rec TD
1
Target share
22.5%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 3 games

Away · Tennessee Titans

Q1
10
Q2
3
Q3
7
Q4
17

Home · Baltimore Ravens

Q1
28
Q2
34
Q3
10
Q4
20

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · TEN

passing

Tennessee Titans ranks in the 0th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · TEN

efficiency

Tennessee Titans ranks in the 19th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Passing profile · BAL

passing

Baltimore Ravens ranks in the 68th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · BAL

efficiency

Baltimore Ravens ranks in the 48th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo favors Baltimore Ravens at 86.9%.
  • Rolling efficiency favors Baltimore Ravens at 76.7%.
  • The calibrated estimate is 81%; it is a probability, not a certainty.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Tennessee Titans and 3 for Baltimore Ravens; prior-season form is still blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
  • The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.

Model Analysis

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: the v0.3 ensemble places Baltimore Ravens at 81% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Tennessee Titans and 3 for Baltimore Ravens; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Baltimore Ravens (81%). Signal: Strong; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.