Away
Baltimore Ravens
3-1
Home
Atlanta Falcons
2-2
Model Win Probability
Baltimore Ravens · Away
52%
separation4%
Atlanta Falcons · Home
48%
- Elo component
- 59% BAL
- Efficiency component
- 43% BAL
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| BAL | Metric | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 0.081 | EPA / Play | -0.013 |
| 46.4% | Success Rate | 45.8% |
| 0.165 | Dropback EPA | -0.000 |
| 0.012 | Rush EPA | -0.037 |
| 15.2% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.8% |
| 38.5% | 3rd Down Conversion | 37.0% |
| 55.6% | Red Zone TD Rate | 68.1% |
| 0.011 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.016 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 6 days
- Site
- Atlanta Falcons home game
Player Impact
Lamar Jackson
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 68/96
- Pass yds
- 967
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 10.1
- Sacks
- 7
Tyler Huntley
QB2026 Week 4
- CMP/ATT
- 8/9
- Pass yds
- 63
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7
- Sacks
- 0
Derrick Henry
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 89
- Rush yds
- 374
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 70.1%
Justice Hill
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 14
- Rush yds
- 60
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 11%
Mark Andrews
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 149
- YPR
- 8.3
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 23.5%
Zay Flowers
WR2026 Weeks 1, 3, 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 352
- YPR
- 19.6
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 21.6%
Away · Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 68/96
- Pass yds
- 967
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 10.1
- Sacks
- 7
Tyler Huntley
QB2026 Week 4
- CMP/ATT
- 8/9
- Pass yds
- 63
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7
- Sacks
- 0
Derrick Henry
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 89
- Rush yds
- 374
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 70.1%
Justice Hill
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 14
- Rush yds
- 60
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 11%
Mark Andrews
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 149
- YPR
- 8.3
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 23.5%
Zay Flowers
WR2026 Weeks 1, 3, 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 352
- YPR
- 19.6
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 21.6%
Home · Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.
QB2026 Weeks 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 33/45
- Pass yds
- 479
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 10.6
- Sacks
- 1
Bijan Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 85
- Rush yds
- 494
- YPC
- 5.8
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 14
- Rush share
- 61.2%
Brian Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 44
- Rush yds
- 194
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 31.7%
Drake London
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 370
- YPR
- 18.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 26.9%
Jahan Dotson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 6
- Rec yds
- 95
- YPR
- 15.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 14%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Baltimore Ravens
Lamar JacksonQB
UNKNOWNAnkle; did not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · Baltimore Ravens
Home · Atlanta Falcons
Latest News
- Ravens acquire two-time Pro Bowl center Jurgens in trade with Eagles
ESPN NFL · just now · BAL / PHI
- Jesse Minter: Our offense doesn't have to change much with Tyler Huntley
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 3h ago · ATL
- Grading in-season NFL trades: Did the Ravens give up too much for Cam Jurgens?
ESPN NFL · 4h ago · BAL / DAL
- 'A loaded question:' How do the Ravens plan to stop Bijan Robinson?
ESPN NFL · 4h ago · BAL
- Ravens vs Titans: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · BAL / TEN
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · BAL
passingBaltimore Ravens ranks in the 68th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · BAL
efficiencyBaltimore Ravens ranks in the 52th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · ATL
passingAtlanta Falcons ranks in the 26th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · ATL
efficiencyAtlanta Falcons ranks in the 61th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Baltimore Ravens 58.6%.
- Rolling efficiency: Baltimore Ravens 43.0%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Baltimore Ravens at 52%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Baltimore Ravens and 4 for Atlanta Falcons; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components disagree on the winner.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons: the v0.3 ensemble places Baltimore Ravens at 52%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Baltimore Ravens and 4 for Atlanta Falcons; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Baltimore Ravens (52%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.