Away
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0-4
Home
Dallas Cowboys
2-2
Model Win Probability
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Away
38%
separation24%
Dallas Cowboys · Home
62%
- Elo component
- 40% TB
- Efficiency component
- 30% TB
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| TB | Metric | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| -0.045 | EPA / Play | 0.143 |
| 42.0% | Success Rate | 48.0% |
| -0.009 | Dropback EPA | 0.240 |
| -0.069 | Rush EPA | -0.041 |
| 9.9% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.4% |
| 40.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 46.5% |
| 53.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 65.9% |
| -0.009 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.174 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- AT&T Stadium
- Kickoff
- Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET
- Surface
- matrixturf
- Away rest
- 4 days
- Home rest
- 4 days
- Site
- Dallas Cowboys home game
Player Impact
Baker Mayfield
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 61/96
- Pass yds
- 615
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.4
- Sacks
- 13
Jalon Daniels
QB2026 Weeks 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 19/30
- Pass yds
- 148
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 4.9
- Sacks
- 3
Bucky Irving
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 56
- Rush yds
- 241
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 13
- Rush share
- 57.7%
Kenny Gainwell
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 13
- Rush yds
- 26
- YPC
- 2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 8
- Rush share
- 13.4%
Emeka Egbuka
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 154
- YPR
- 10.3
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 19.8%
Cade Otton
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 157
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 19%
Away · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- CMP/ATT
- 61/96
- Pass yds
- 615
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.4
- Sacks
- 13
Jalon Daniels
QB2026 Weeks 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 19/30
- Pass yds
- 148
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 4.9
- Sacks
- 3
Bucky Irving
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 56
- Rush yds
- 241
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 13
- Rush share
- 57.7%
Kenny Gainwell
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 13
- Rush yds
- 26
- YPC
- 2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 8
- Rush share
- 13.4%
Emeka Egbuka
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 154
- YPR
- 10.3
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 19.8%
Cade Otton
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 157
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 19%
Home · Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 105/150
- Pass yds
- 1065
- Pass TD
- 8
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.1
- Sacks
- 6
Javonte Williams
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 62
- Rush yds
- 231
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 5
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 15
- Rush share
- 66%
Tyler Goodson
RB2026 Weeks 3, 4
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 34
- YPC
- 3.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 9.6%
CeeDee Lamb
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 46
- Rec
- 37
- Rec yds
- 498
- YPR
- 13.5
- Rec TD
- 4
- Target share
- 31.9%
George Pickens
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 28
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 225
- YPR
- 12.5
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 19.4%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker MayfieldQB
OUTThumb; ruled out for Thursday.
Official Thursday designation.
SirVocea DennisLB
OUTAnkle/foot; ruled out.
Official Thursday designation.
Benjamin MorrisonCB
OUTQuadricep; ruled out.
Official Thursday designation.
Antoine Winfield Jr.S
OUTRib; ruled out.
Official Thursday designation.
Home · Dallas Cowboys
Cobie DurantCB
OUTHamstring; ruled out.
Official Thursday designation.
DeMarvion OvershownLB
OUTHamstring; ruled out.
Official Thursday designation.
Drew SheltonOL
OUTHamstring; ruled out.
Official Thursday designation.
Tyler SmithOL
QUESTIONABLEThumb; final Thursday designation.
Official Thursday designation.
Jonathan MingoWR
QUESTIONABLEIllness; final Thursday designation.
Official Thursday designation.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Home · Dallas Cowboys
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · TB
passingTampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 19th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · TB
efficiencyTampa Bay Buccaneers ranks in the 55th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · DAL
passingDallas Cowboys ranks in the 97th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · DAL
efficiencyDallas Cowboys ranks in the 0th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40.4%.
- Rolling efficiency: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30.2%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Dallas Cowboys at 62%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 4 for Dallas Cowboys; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: the v0.3 ensemble places Dallas Cowboys at 62%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 4 for Dallas Cowboys; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Dallas Cowboys (62%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.