Away
Buffalo Bills
3-1
Home
Los Angeles Rams
2-2
Model Win Probability
Buffalo Bills · Away
46%
separation8%
Los Angeles Rams · Home
54%
- Elo component
- 52% BUF
- Efficiency component
- 34% BUF
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| BUF | Metric | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 0.156 | EPA / Play | 0.095 |
| 48.2% | Success Rate | 50.3% |
| 0.233 | Dropback EPA | 0.167 |
| 0.028 | Rush EPA | -0.029 |
| 15.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 14.4% |
| 49.9% | 3rd Down Conversion | 43.6% |
| 68.1% | Red Zone TD Rate | 62.0% |
| 0.030 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.080 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- SoFi Stadium
- Kickoff
- Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- matrixturf
- Away rest
- 8 days
- Home rest
- 8 days
- Site
- Los Angeles Rams home game
Player Impact
Josh Allen
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 79/119
- Pass yds
- 1039
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 8.7
- Sacks
- 9
James Cook
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 70
- Rush yds
- 421
- YPC
- 6
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 6
- Rush share
- 63.6%
Ray Davis
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 4
- Carries
- 2
- Rush yds
- 6
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 1.8%
Khalil Shakir
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 176
- YPR
- 11.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20.5%
DJ Moore
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 178
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.9%
Away · Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 79/119
- Pass yds
- 1039
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 8.7
- Sacks
- 9
James Cook
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 70
- Rush yds
- 421
- YPC
- 6
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 6
- Rush share
- 63.6%
Ray Davis
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 4
- Carries
- 2
- Rush yds
- 6
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 1.8%
Khalil Shakir
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 176
- YPR
- 11.7
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 20.5%
DJ Moore
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 178
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.9%
Home · Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 99/162
- Pass yds
- 1189
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 6
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 6
Kyren Williams
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 54
- Rush yds
- 294
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 21
- Rush share
- 51.4%
Blake Corum
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 33
- Rush yds
- 162
- YPC
- 4.9
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 31.4%
Davante Adams
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 38
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 390
- YPR
- 17.7
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 24.4%
Puka Nacua
WR2026 Weeks 1, 4
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 199
- YPR
- 14.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 13.5%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · Buffalo Bills
Home · Los Angeles Rams
Latest News
- Rams panic meter: How LA compares to other 2-2 NFC teams
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · LA
- Examining biggest Rams tendencies before MNF’s game vs. Bills
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · BUF / LA
- Will Terrance Ferguson pick up where he left off for Rams?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · LA
- Bills news: Assessing Buffalo’s offense through 4 weeks
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · BUF
- Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen are among football's best liars. Here's how they fool defenses
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · LA
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · BUF
passingBuffalo Bills ranks in the 90th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · BUF
efficiencyBuffalo Bills ranks in the 39th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · LA
passingLos Angeles Rams ranks in the 71th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · LA
efficiencyLos Angeles Rams ranks in the 90th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Buffalo Bills 52.4%.
- Rolling efficiency: Buffalo Bills 34.3%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Los Angeles Rams at 54%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Buffalo Bills and 4 for Los Angeles Rams; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components disagree on the winner.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: the v0.3 ensemble places Los Angeles Rams at 54%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Buffalo Bills and 4 for Los Angeles Rams; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Los Angeles Rams (54%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.