Away
Chicago Bears
3-1
Home
Green Bay Packers
2-2
Model Win Probability
Chicago Bears · Away
51%
separation2%
Green Bay Packers · Home
49%
- Elo component
- 51% CHI
- Efficiency component
- 57% CHI
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| CHI | Metric | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 0.088 | EPA / Play | 0.057 |
| 46.5% | Success Rate | 45.0% |
| 0.170 | Dropback EPA | 0.198 |
| -0.024 | Rush EPA | -0.199 |
| 13.2% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.5% |
| 45.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 43.2% |
| 57.5% | Red Zone TD Rate | 57.5% |
| -0.013 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.043 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Lambeau Field
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Green Bay Packers home game
Player Impact
Caleb Williams
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- CMP/ATT
- 36/55
- Pass yds
- 407
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 5
Tyson Bagent
QB2026 Weeks 2, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 30/43
- Pass yds
- 322
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.5
- Sacks
- 2
D'Andre Swift
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 69
- Rush yds
- 311
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 10
- Rush share
- 43.4%
Kyle Monangai
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 60
- Rush yds
- 324
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 37.7%
Luther Burden III
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 219
- YPR
- 11.5
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 24%
Kalif Raymond
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 220
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 19%
Away · Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- CMP/ATT
- 36/55
- Pass yds
- 407
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 5
Tyson Bagent
QB2026 Weeks 2, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 30/43
- Pass yds
- 322
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.5
- Sacks
- 2
D'Andre Swift
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 69
- Rush yds
- 311
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 10
- Rush share
- 43.4%
Kyle Monangai
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 60
- Rush yds
- 324
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 37.7%
Luther Burden III
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 219
- YPR
- 11.5
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 24%
Kalif Raymond
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 220
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 19%
Home · Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 87/154
- Pass yds
- 1041
- Pass TD
- 8
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.8
- Sacks
- 8
MarShawn Lloyd
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 30
- Rush yds
- 81
- YPC
- 2.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 41.1%
Kaleb Johnson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 20
- Rush yds
- 80
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 27.4%
Matthew Golden
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 37
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 274
- YPR
- 15.2
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 24.7%
Christian Watson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 32
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 331
- YPR
- 16.6
- Rec TD
- 4
- Target share
- 21.3%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Chicago Bears
Caleb WilliamsQB
UNKNOWNDid not practice Wednesday; quarterback availability uncertain.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
D'Andre SwiftRB
UNKNOWNDid not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · Chicago Bears
Home · Green Bay Packers
Latest News
- Tyson Bagent doesn't care if he gets the credit as the starting QB for last week's win
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · just now · CHI / NYJ
- Tyson Bagent doesn't care if he gets the credit as the starting QB for last week's win
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · CHI / NYJ
- Tyson Bagent Week 4 QB Grade: Jets @ Bears Film Breakdown
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · CHI / NYJ
- Tucker Kraft on dropped passes: I'm trying to do too much
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 1h ago · GB
- Tucker Kraft on dropped passes: I'm trying to do too much
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · GB
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · CHI
passingChicago Bears ranks in the 77th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · CHI
efficiencyChicago Bears ranks in the 58th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · GB
passingGreen Bay Packers ranks in the 84th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · GB
efficiencyGreen Bay Packers ranks in the 32th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Chicago Bears 50.9%.
- Rolling efficiency: Chicago Bears 57.2%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Chicago Bears at 51%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Chicago Bears and 4 for Green Bay Packers; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: the v0.3 ensemble places Chicago Bears at 51%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Chicago Bears and 4 for Green Bay Packers; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Chicago Bears (51%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.