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Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETCIN @ MIA
Cincinnati Bengals

Away

Cincinnati Bengals

2-2

Miami Dolphins

Home

Miami Dolphins

0-4

Model Win Probability

Cincinnati Bengals · Away

60%

Model
separation20%

Miami Dolphins · Home

40%

Signal: Lean· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
61% CIN
Efficiency component
69% CIN
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

58
16
Offense
42
13
Passing
77
42
Rushing
26
10
Defense
81
16
Pass Rush
92
13
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

CINMetricMIA
0.018EPA / Play-0.069
45.8%Success Rate39.6%
0.030Dropback EPA-0.047
-0.034Rush EPA-0.106
12.8%Explosive Play Rate12.7%
45.7%3rd Down Conversion35.0%
70.1%Red Zone TD Rate51.9%
0.076Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.096

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Miami Dolphins home game

Player Impact

Joe Burrow

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

CMP/ATT
112/157
Pass yds
1171
Pass TD
7
INT
3
Y/A
7.5
Sacks
9

Chase Brown

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Carries
58
Rush yds
207
YPC
3.6
Rush TD
1
Targets
24
Rec
21
Rush share
69.9%

Samaje Perine

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Carries
13
Rush yds
42
YPC
3.2
Rush TD
0
Targets
8
Rec
5
Rush share
15.7%

Tee Higgins

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Targets
39
Rec
25
Rec yds
401
YPR
16
Rec TD
1
Target share
25.2%

Ja'Marr Chase

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Targets
28
Rec
21
Rec yds
212
YPR
10.1
Rec TD
3
Target share
18.1%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Cincinnati Bengals

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

UNKNOWN

Concussion; did not practice Wednesday.

Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.

Tee HigginsWR

UNKNOWN

Adductor; did not practice Wednesday.

Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 4 games

Away · Cincinnati Bengals

Q1
21
Q2
30
Q3
23
Q4
23

Home · Miami Dolphins

Q1
7
Q2
12
Q3
20
Q4
7

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · CIN

passing

Cincinnati Bengals ranks in the 42th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Defense profile · CIN

efficiency

Cincinnati Bengals ranks in the 26th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Passing profile · MIA

passing

Miami Dolphins ranks in the 13th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Defense profile · MIA

efficiency

Miami Dolphins ranks in the 10th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Cincinnati Bengals 60.7%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Cincinnati Bengals 69.1%.
  • The blended, calibrated estimate favors Cincinnati Bengals at 60%; a single game remains uncertain.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Cincinnati Bengals and 4 for Miami Dolphins; prior-season form is blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
  • Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.

Model Analysis

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: the v0.3 ensemble places Cincinnati Bengals at 60%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Cincinnati Bengals and 4 for Miami Dolphins; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Cincinnati Bengals (60%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.