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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETCLE @ NYJ
Cleveland Browns

Away

Cleveland Browns

3-1

New York Jets

Home

New York Jets

1-3

Model Win Probability

Cleveland Browns · Away

56%

Model
separation12%

New York Jets · Home

44%

Signal: Lean· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
58% CLE
Efficiency component
57% CLE
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

3
13
Offense
6
10
Passing
10
13
Rushing
81
6
Defense
97
10
Pass Rush
6
2
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

CLEMetricNYJ
-0.129EPA / Play-0.091
37.7%Success Rate41.0%
-0.092Dropback EPA-0.059
-0.179Rush EPA-0.159
9.4%Explosive Play Rate9.5%
34.2%3rd Down Conversion33.1%
46.4%Red Zone TD Rate45.3%
-0.044Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.103

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
10 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
New York Jets home game

Player Impact

Deshaun Watson

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

CMP/ATT
80/115
Pass yds
855
Pass TD
6
INT
2
Y/A
7.4
Sacks
11

Quinshon Judkins

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Carries
59
Rush yds
177
YPC
3
Rush TD
1
Targets
16
Rec
15
Rush share
57.8%

Raheim Sanders

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Carries
6
Rush yds
31
YPC
5.2
Rush TD
0
Targets
11
Rec
10
Rush share
5.9%

KC Concepcion

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Targets
28
Rec
17
Rec yds
144
YPR
8.5
Rec TD
0
Target share
24.3%

Harold Fannin Jr.

TE

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Targets
23
Rec
17
Rec yds
153
YPR
9
Rec TD
3
Target share
20%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Cleveland Browns

Mason GrahamDL

UNKNOWN

Did not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.

Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.

Home · New York Jets

Breece HallRB

UNKNOWN

Did not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.

Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 4 games

Away · Cleveland Browns

Q1
3
Q2
34
Q3
13
Q4
31

Home · New York Jets

Q1
7
Q2
20
Q3
23
Q4
26

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · CLE

passing

Cleveland Browns ranks in the 6th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Defense profile · CLE

efficiency

Cleveland Browns ranks in the 81th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Passing profile · NYJ

passing

New York Jets ranks in the 10th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Defense profile · NYJ

efficiency

New York Jets ranks in the 6th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Cleveland Browns 58.1%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Cleveland Browns 56.6%.
  • The blended, calibrated estimate favors Cleveland Browns at 56%; a single game remains uncertain.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Cleveland Browns and 4 for New York Jets; prior-season form is blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
  • Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.

Model Analysis

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: the v0.3 ensemble places Cleveland Browns at 56%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Cleveland Browns and 4 for New York Jets; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Cleveland Browns (56%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.