Away
Denver Broncos
2-2
Home
Los Angeles Chargers
0-4
Model Win Probability
Denver Broncos · Away
61%
separation22%
Los Angeles Chargers · Home
39%
- Elo component
- 64% DEN
- Efficiency component
- 63% DEN
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| DEN | Metric | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 0.007 | EPA / Play | -0.063 |
| 42.5% | Success Rate | 42.6% |
| 0.070 | Dropback EPA | -0.007 |
| -0.084 | Rush EPA | -0.120 |
| 10.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.1% |
| 42.1% | 3rd Down Conversion | 43.6% |
| 65.8% | Red Zone TD Rate | 54.8% |
| -0.037 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.063 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- SoFi Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- matrixturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Los Angeles Chargers home game
Player Impact
Bo Nix
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 81/135
- Pass yds
- 819
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 5
J.K. Dobbins
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 46
- Rush yds
- 161
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 51.1%
RJ Harvey
RB2026 Weeks 1, 3, 4
- Carries
- 12
- Rush yds
- 49
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 20
- Rush share
- 13.3%
Jaylen Waddle
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 185
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 20.8%
Courtland Sutton
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 86
- YPR
- 9.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.6%
Away · Denver Broncos
Bo Nix
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 81/135
- Pass yds
- 819
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 5
J.K. Dobbins
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 46
- Rush yds
- 161
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 51.1%
RJ Harvey
RB2026 Weeks 1, 3, 4
- Carries
- 12
- Rush yds
- 49
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 20
- Rush share
- 13.3%
Jaylen Waddle
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 185
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 20.8%
Courtland Sutton
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 86
- YPR
- 9.6
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.6%
Home · Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 71/119
- Pass yds
- 816
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 6
- Y/A
- 6.9
- Sacks
- 12
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 59
- Rush yds
- 238
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 52.2%
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 27
- Rush yds
- 124
- YPC
- 4.6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 23.9%
Tre Harris
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 209
- YPR
- 16.1
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 17.9%
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 108
- YPR
- 15.4
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 16.2%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · Denver Broncos
Home · Los Angeles Chargers
Latest News
- Sources: Payton to expand role in more collaborative playcalling approach
ESPN NFL · just now · DEN
- Sean Payton taking back Broncos play-calling. It's about time | Opinion
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · DEN
- Broncos couch offensive shakeup as more "collaboration"
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · just now · DEN
- Sean Payton will be more heavily involved in the play-calling vs. the Chargers
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · DEN / LAC
- Sean Payton to reportedly take an increased role in offense after team's slow start under Davis Webb
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · DEN
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · DEN
passingDenver Broncos ranks in the 48th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · DEN
efficiencyDenver Broncos ranks in the 77th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · LAC
passingLos Angeles Chargers ranks in the 23th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · LAC
efficiencyLos Angeles Chargers ranks in the 87th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Denver Broncos 63.8%.
- Rolling efficiency: Denver Broncos 62.7%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Denver Broncos at 61%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Denver Broncos and 4 for Los Angeles Chargers; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers: the v0.3 ensemble places Denver Broncos at 61%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Denver Broncos and 4 for Los Angeles Chargers; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Denver Broncos (61%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.