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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday Late · Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ETDET @ ARI
Detroit Lions

Away

Detroit Lions

2-2

Arizona Cardinals

Home

Arizona Cardinals

1-3

Model Win Probability

Detroit Lions · Away

65%

Model
separation30%

Arizona Cardinals · Home

35%

Signal: Moderate· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
70% DET
Efficiency component
65% DET
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

90
29
Offense
87
39
Passing
45
19
Rushing
19
13
Defense
84
23
Pass Rush
62
60
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

DETMetricARI
0.097EPA / Play-0.024
46.6%Success Rate43.6%
0.215Dropback EPA0.028
-0.092Rush EPA-0.134
13.7%Explosive Play Rate9.8%
40.3%3rd Down Conversion42.1%
66.1%Red Zone TD Rate60.4%
0.082Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.088

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Arizona Cardinals home game

Player Impact

Jared Goff

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

CMP/ATT
109/161
Pass yds
1214
Pass TD
9
INT
0
Y/A
7.5
Sacks
8

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Carries
80
Rush yds
353
YPC
4.4
Rush TD
5
Targets
28
Rec
22
Rush share
81.6%

Sione Vaki

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Carries
9
Rush yds
40
YPC
4.4
Rush TD
0
Targets
5
Rec
4
Rush share
9.2%

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Targets
46
Rec
31
Rec yds
303
YPR
9.8
Rec TD
5
Target share
28.9%

Sam LaPorta

TE

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Targets
32
Rec
22
Rec yds
228
YPR
10.4
Rec TD
2
Target share
20.1%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Detroit Lions

Brian BranchS

UNKNOWN

Limited Wednesday after return-to-practice window opened.

Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.

Cade MaysOL

UNKNOWN

Limited Wednesday after return-to-practice window opened.

Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 4 games

Away · Detroit Lions

Q1
10
Q2
33
Q3
37
Q4
32

Home · Arizona Cardinals

Q1
27
Q2
16
Q3
17
Q4
27

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · DET

passing

Detroit Lions ranks in the 87th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Defense profile · DET

efficiency

Detroit Lions ranks in the 19th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Passing profile · ARI

passing

Arizona Cardinals ranks in the 39th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Defense profile · ARI

efficiency

Arizona Cardinals ranks in the 13th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Detroit Lions 69.7%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Detroit Lions 64.8%.
  • The blended, calibrated estimate favors Detroit Lions at 65%; a single game remains uncertain.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Detroit Lions and 4 for Arizona Cardinals; prior-season form is blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
  • Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.

Model Analysis

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: the v0.3 ensemble places Detroit Lions at 65%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Detroit Lions and 4 for Arizona Cardinals; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Detroit Lions (65%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.