Away
Houston Texans
0-4
Home
Tennessee Titans
0-4
Model Win Probability
Houston Texans · Away
71%
separation42%
Tennessee Titans · Home
29%
- Elo component
- 76% HOU
- Efficiency component
- 70% HOU
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| HOU | Metric | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| -0.016 | EPA / Play | -0.131 |
| 42.0% | Success Rate | 38.9% |
| 0.093 | Dropback EPA | -0.137 |
| -0.222 | Rush EPA | -0.115 |
| 11.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 9.6% |
| 38.4% | 3rd Down Conversion | 32.5% |
| 46.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 58.3% |
| -0.056 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.086 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Tennessee Titans home game
Player Impact
C.J. Stroud
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 93/151
- Pass yds
- 1141
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.6
- Sacks
- 12
David Montgomery
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 47
- Rush yds
- 127
- YPC
- 2.7
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 52.2%
Woody Marks
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 87
- YPC
- 3.1
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 31.1%
Dalton Schultz
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 214
- YPR
- 10.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 19.6%
Xavier Hutchinson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 166
- YPR
- 13.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18.8%
Away · Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 93/151
- Pass yds
- 1141
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.6
- Sacks
- 12
David Montgomery
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 47
- Rush yds
- 127
- YPC
- 2.7
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 52.2%
Woody Marks
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 87
- YPC
- 3.1
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 31.1%
Dalton Schultz
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 214
- YPR
- 10.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 19.6%
Xavier Hutchinson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 166
- YPR
- 13.8
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 18.8%
Home · Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 75/119
- Pass yds
- 726
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 6
Tony Pollard
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 54
- Rush yds
- 221
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 8
- Rush share
- 60%
Tyjae Spears
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 65
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 16.7%
Carnell Tate
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 32
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 268
- YPR
- 12.2
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 29.6%
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 123
- YPR
- 7.7
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 21.3%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · Houston Texans
Home · Tennessee Titans
Latest News
- Texans sign WR Bryce Oliver to their active roster
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · just now · HOU
- Texans coach Ryans taking over defensive playcalling after 0-4 start
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · HOU
- Houston Texans: How to watch, who to blame
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · HOU
- Los Angeles Chargers news: What was the Chargers’ identity supposed to be this season?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · HOU / LAC
- Titans-Texans: Not all 0-4 teams are created equal
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · HOU / TEN
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · HOU
passingHouston Texans ranks in the 61th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · HOU
efficiencyHouston Texans ranks in the 84th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · TEN
passingTennessee Titans ranks in the 0th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · TEN
efficiencyTennessee Titans ranks in the 16th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Houston Texans 76.4%.
- Rolling efficiency: Houston Texans 69.9%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Houston Texans at 71%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Houston Texans and 4 for Tennessee Titans; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: the v0.3 ensemble places Houston Texans at 71%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Houston Texans and 4 for Tennessee Titans; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Houston Texans (71%). Signal: Strong; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.