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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ETIND @ PIT
Indianapolis Colts

Away

Indianapolis Colts

2-2

Pittsburgh Steelers

Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

2-2

Model Win Probability

Indianapolis Colts · Away

42%

Model
separation16%

Pittsburgh Steelers · Home

58%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
37% IND
Efficiency component
52% IND
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

61
42
Offense
35
29
Passing
100
87
Rushing
45
48
Defense
39
77
Pass Rush
78
34
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

INDMetricPIT
0.038EPA / Play-0.008
45.4%Success Rate43.6%
0.023Dropback EPA0.007
0.077Rush EPA-0.021
12.7%Explosive Play Rate11.4%
41.8%3rd Down Conversion41.0%
72.7%Red Zone TD Rate53.0%
0.016Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.015

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
10 days
Site
Pittsburgh Steelers home game

Player Impact

Daniel Jones

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

CMP/ATT
84/132
Pass yds
754
Pass TD
3
INT
4
Y/A
5.7
Sacks
8

Jonathan Taylor

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Carries
86
Rush yds
353
YPC
4.1
Rush TD
6
Targets
15
Rec
10
Rush share
76.1%

Seth McGowan

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Carries
12
Rush yds
45
YPC
3.8
Rush TD
0
Targets
3
Rec
2
Rush share
10.6%

Josh Downs

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Targets
28
Rec
17
Rec yds
202
YPR
11.9
Rec TD
0
Target share
22.8%

Tyler Warren

TE

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4

Targets
27
Rec
23
Rec yds
130
YPR
5.7
Rec TD
2
Target share
22%

Injuries & Availability

Away · Indianapolis Colts

Tanor BortoliniOL

UNKNOWN

Did not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.

Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 4 games

Away · Indianapolis Colts

Q1
16
Q2
40
Q3
13
Q4
30

Home · Pittsburgh Steelers

Q1
24
Q2
19
Q3
7
Q4
27

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · IND

passing

Indianapolis Colts ranks in the 35th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Defense profile · IND

efficiency

Indianapolis Colts ranks in the 45th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Passing profile · PIT

passing

Pittsburgh Steelers ranks in the 29th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Defense profile · PIT

efficiency

Pittsburgh Steelers ranks in the 48th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Indianapolis Colts 36.9%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Indianapolis Colts 51.6%.
  • The blended, calibrated estimate favors Pittsburgh Steelers at 58%; a single game remains uncertain.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Indianapolis Colts and 4 for Pittsburgh Steelers; prior-season form is blended in.
  • The components disagree on the winner.
  • Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.

Model Analysis

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: the v0.3 ensemble places Pittsburgh Steelers at 58%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Indianapolis Colts and 4 for Pittsburgh Steelers; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (58%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.