Away
Las Vegas Raiders
3-1
Home
New England Patriots
2-2
Model Win Probability
Las Vegas Raiders · Away
27%
separation46%
New England Patriots · Home
73%
- Elo component
- 25% LV
- Efficiency component
- 23% LV
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| LV | Metric | NE |
|---|---|---|
| -0.127 | EPA / Play | 0.096 |
| 39.9% | Success Rate | 46.6% |
| -0.021 | Dropback EPA | 0.236 |
| -0.286 | Rush EPA | -0.107 |
| 10.1% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.6% |
| 38.5% | 3rd Down Conversion | 43.1% |
| 59.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 53.0% |
| -0.029 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.029 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Gillette Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- New England Patriots home game
Player Impact
Kirk Cousins
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 93/144
- Pass yds
- 1026
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7.1
- Sacks
- 5
Ashton Jeanty
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 78
- Rush yds
- 264
- YPC
- 3.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 19
- Rush share
- 65.5%
Mike Washington Jr.
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 24
- Rush yds
- 120
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 20.2%
Brock Bowers
TE2026 Weeks 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 202
- YPR
- 12.6
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 17.6%
Michael Mayer
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 169
- YPR
- 8.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.6%
Away · Las Vegas Raiders
Kirk Cousins
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 93/144
- Pass yds
- 1026
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7.1
- Sacks
- 5
Ashton Jeanty
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 78
- Rush yds
- 264
- YPC
- 3.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 19
- Rush share
- 65.5%
Mike Washington Jr.
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 24
- Rush yds
- 120
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 20.2%
Brock Bowers
TE2026 Weeks 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 202
- YPR
- 12.6
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 17.6%
Michael Mayer
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 169
- YPR
- 8.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.6%
Home · New England Patriots
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 73/117
- Pass yds
- 854
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 10
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 44
- Rush yds
- 163
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 12
- Rush share
- 36.7%
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 38
- Rush yds
- 141
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 31.7%
Mack Hollins
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 209
- YPR
- 13.9
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 16.9%
Romeo Doubs
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 203
- YPR
- 16.9
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 16.9%
Injuries & Availability
Home · New England Patriots
Christian GonzalezCB
UNKNOWNDid not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · Las Vegas Raiders
Home · New England Patriots
Latest News
- Submit your Week 5 Las Vegas Raiders mailbag questions!
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · LV
- Patriots news: Pats-Raiders keys to victory, building on success
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · LV / NE
- Packers' Rivalries look, Patriots' red 'Pat Patriot' headline NFL Week 5 uniforms
ESPN NFL · 2h ago · GB / NE
- Patriots treating Raiders TE Brock Bowers like a wide receiver this week
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · LV / NE
- Patriots vs. Raiders series history ahead of Week 5
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · LV / NE
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · LV
passingLas Vegas Raiders ranks in the 16th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · LV
efficiencyLas Vegas Raiders ranks in the 68th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · NE
passingNew England Patriots ranks in the 94th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · NE
efficiencyNew England Patriots ranks in the 71th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Las Vegas Raiders 25.2%.
- Rolling efficiency: Las Vegas Raiders 23.4%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors New England Patriots at 73%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Las Vegas Raiders and 4 for New England Patriots; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots: the v0.3 ensemble places New England Patriots at 73%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Las Vegas Raiders and 4 for New England Patriots; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: New England Patriots (73%). Signal: Strong; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.