Away
Minnesota Vikings
4-0
Home
New Orleans Saints
1-3
Model Win Probability
Minnesota Vikings · Away
63%
separation26%
New Orleans Saints · Home
37%
- Elo component
- 74% MIN
- Efficiency component
- 45% MIN
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| MIN | Metric | NO |
|---|---|---|
| -0.105 | EPA / Play | -0.047 |
| 39.9% | Success Rate | 43.2% |
| -0.104 | Dropback EPA | 0.012 |
| -0.113 | Rush EPA | -0.152 |
| 11.1% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.3% |
| 35.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 43.9% |
| 50.2% | Red Zone TD Rate | 54.9% |
| -0.134 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.024 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Caesars Superdome
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- sportturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 6 days
- Site
- New Orleans Saints home game
Player Impact
Kyler Murray
QB2026 Weeks 1, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 45/71
- Pass yds
- 433
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 7
Aaron Jones
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 72
- Rush yds
- 297
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 62.1%
Jordan Mason
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 59
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 12.9%
T.J. Hockenson
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 195
- YPR
- 8.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 26%
Jordan Addison
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 163
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 22%
Away · Minnesota Vikings
Kyler Murray
QB2026 Weeks 1, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 45/71
- Pass yds
- 433
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 7
Aaron Jones
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 72
- Rush yds
- 297
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 62.1%
Jordan Mason
RB2026 Week 1
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 59
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 12.9%
T.J. Hockenson
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 195
- YPR
- 8.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 26%
Jordan Addison
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 163
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 22%
Home · New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 121/180
- Pass yds
- 1203
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.7
- Sacks
- 12
Travis Etienne
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 30
- Rush yds
- 128
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 11
- Rush share
- 30.3%
Alvin Kamara
RB2026 Weeks 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 25
- Rush yds
- 74
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 11
- Rush share
- 25.3%
Chris Olave
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 48
- Rec
- 35
- Rec yds
- 491
- YPR
- 14
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 28.1%
Devaughn Vele
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 31
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 226
- YPR
- 10.8
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 18.1%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Minnesota Vikings
Justin JeffersonWR
UNKNOWNLimited in Wednesday practice; Sunday designation pending.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Christian DarrisawOL
UNKNOWNDid not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Home · New Orleans Saints
Alvin KamaraRB
UNKNOWNDid not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Chris OlaveWR
UNKNOWNDid not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Tyler ShoughQB
UNKNOWNLimited Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · Minnesota Vikings
Home · New Orleans Saints
Latest News
- Vikings' Jefferson (ankle) optimistic about playing vs. Saints
ESPN NFL · just now · MIN / NO
- Is it time to have the Kellen Moore conversation?
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · NO
- Saints Rookie Report: Week 5 preview vs. the Vikings
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · MIN / NO
- Saints Super Bowl Odds: Week 5
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · NO
- Five reasons why Vikings' defense sits atop the NFL rankings
ESPN NFL · 4h ago · MIN
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · MIN
passingMinnesota Vikings ranks in the 3th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · MIN
efficiencyMinnesota Vikings ranks in the 100th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · NO
passingNew Orleans Saints ranks in the 32th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · NO
efficiencyNew Orleans Saints ranks in the 42th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Minnesota Vikings 74.4%.
- Rolling efficiency: Minnesota Vikings 45.4%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Minnesota Vikings at 63%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Minnesota Vikings and 4 for New Orleans Saints; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components disagree on the winner.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints: the v0.3 ensemble places Minnesota Vikings at 63%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Minnesota Vikings and 4 for New Orleans Saints; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Minnesota Vikings (63%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.