Away
New York Giants
3-1
Home
Washington Commanders
1-3
Model Win Probability
New York Giants · Away
44%
separation12%
Washington Commanders · Home
56%
- Elo component
- 47% NYG
- Efficiency component
- 38% NYG
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NYG | Metric | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| 0.009 | EPA / Play | 0.009 |
| 42.1% | Success Rate | 43.7% |
| 0.080 | Dropback EPA | 0.085 |
| -0.084 | Rush EPA | -0.077 |
| 11.2% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.1% |
| 43.3% | 3rd Down Conversion | 37.2% |
| 49.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 65.8% |
| 0.077 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.114 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Northwest Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Washington Commanders home game
Player Impact
Jameis Winston
QB2026 Weeks 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 43/78
- Pass yds
- 479
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 9
Jaxson Dart
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- CMP/ATT
- 26/34
- Pass yds
- 250
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 2
Cam Skattebo
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 68
- Rush yds
- 235
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 8
- Rush share
- 57.1%
Najee Harris
RB2026 Weeks 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 22
- Rush yds
- 88
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 18.5%
Isaiah Likely
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 190
- YPR
- 8.6
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 31.5%
Malik Nabers
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 208
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 23.4%
Away · New York Giants
Jameis Winston
QB2026 Weeks 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 43/78
- Pass yds
- 479
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 9
Jaxson Dart
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- CMP/ATT
- 26/34
- Pass yds
- 250
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 2
Cam Skattebo
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 68
- Rush yds
- 235
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 8
- Rush share
- 57.1%
Najee Harris
RB2026 Weeks 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 22
- Rush yds
- 88
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 18.5%
Isaiah Likely
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 190
- YPR
- 8.6
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 31.5%
Malik Nabers
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 208
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 23.4%
Home · Washington Commanders
Marcus Mariota
QB2026 Weeks 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 33/51
- Pass yds
- 340
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 6.7
- Sacks
- 3
Jayden Daniels
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2
- CMP/ATT
- 29/51
- Pass yds
- 260
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 5.1
- Sacks
- 1
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 56
- Rush yds
- 157
- YPC
- 2.8
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
- Rush share
- 47.5%
Rachaad White
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 22
- Rush yds
- 100
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 9
- Rush share
- 18.6%
Stefon Diggs
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 31
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 170
- YPR
- 9.4
- Rec TD
- 3
- Target share
- 24%
Terry McLaurin
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 141
- YPR
- 14.1
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 17.1%
Injuries & Availability
Away · New York Giants
Jaxson DartQB
IRSeason-ending knee injury; unavailable.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Malik NabersWR
UNKNOWNDid not practice Wednesday; Sunday designation pending.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Home · Washington Commanders
Jayden DanielsQB
UNKNOWNFull Wednesday practice after recent elbow injury; starter not formally confirmed.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Marcus MariotaQB
UNKNOWNDid not practice Wednesday after knee injury.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · New York Giants
Home · Washington Commanders
Latest News
- Commanders OC: Daniels will be 'full go,' have no limitations vs. Giants
ESPN NFL · just now · NYG / WAS
- Giants' Nabers doesn't practice, knee more 'sore' than usual
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · NYG
- David Blough: Jayden Daniels is full go, looking forward to having him back Sunday
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · NYG / WAS
- David Blough: Jayden Daniels is full go, looking forward to having him back Sunday
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 1h ago · NYG / WAS
- Commanders QB Daniels fully practices, trending toward return
ESPN NFL · 2h ago · NYG / WAS
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · NYG
passingNew York Giants ranks in the 55th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · NYG
efficiencyNew York Giants ranks in the 23th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · WAS
passingWashington Commanders ranks in the 58th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · WAS
efficiencyWashington Commanders ranks in the 3th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: New York Giants 47.3%.
- Rolling efficiency: New York Giants 38.0%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Washington Commanders at 56%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for New York Giants and 4 for Washington Commanders; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
New York Giants at Washington Commanders: the v0.3 ensemble places Washington Commanders at 56%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for New York Giants and 4 for Washington Commanders; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Washington Commanders (56%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.