Away
Philadelphia Eagles
2-2
Home
Jacksonville Jaguars
3-1
Model Win Probability
Philadelphia Eagles · Away
40%
separation20%
Jacksonville Jaguars · Home
60%
- Elo component
- 43% PHI
- Efficiency component
- 32% PHI
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| PHI | Metric | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| -0.016 | EPA / Play | 0.074 |
| 41.0% | Success Rate | 45.9% |
| 0.052 | Dropback EPA | 0.167 |
| -0.069 | Rush EPA | -0.052 |
| 11.7% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.0% |
| 35.8% | 3rd Down Conversion | 44.7% |
| 60.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 68.3% |
| -0.018 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.085 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Neutral site
Player Impact
Jalen Hurts
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 68/114
- Pass yds
- 713
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.3
- Sacks
- 12
Saquon Barkley
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 36
- Rush yds
- 182
- YPC
- 5.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 35%
Tank Bigsby
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 91
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 27.2%
DeVonta Smith
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 235
- YPR
- 12.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 25.5%
Dontayvion Wicks
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 197
- YPR
- 16.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 18.9%
Away · Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 68/114
- Pass yds
- 713
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.3
- Sacks
- 12
Saquon Barkley
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 36
- Rush yds
- 182
- YPC
- 5.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 35%
Tank Bigsby
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 91
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 27.2%
DeVonta Smith
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 235
- YPR
- 12.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 25.5%
Dontayvion Wicks
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 197
- YPR
- 16.4
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 18.9%
Home · Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 72/104
- Pass yds
- 843
- Pass TD
- 8
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 8.1
- Sacks
- 8
Bhayshul Tuten
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 60
- Rush yds
- 277
- YPC
- 4.6
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 7
- Rush share
- 53.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 26
- Rush yds
- 108
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 0
- Rec
- 0
- Rush share
- 23%
Parker Washington
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 228
- YPR
- 14.2
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 26.3%
Brenton Strange
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 167
- YPR
- 11.9
- Rec TD
- 1
- Target share
- 18.2%
Injuries & Availability
Away · Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon BarkleyRB
UNKNOWNHamstring; availability for Sunday not yet confirmed.
Wednesday practice report; final game status pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · Philadelphia Eagles
Home · Jacksonville Jaguars
Latest News
- Ravens acquire two-time Pro Bowl center Jurgens in trade with Eagles
ESPN NFL · just now · BAL / PHI
- The Eagles keep punting on the field. Are they now punting on the 2026 season?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · PHI
- Eagles News: Cam Jurgens trade grades
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · PHI
- Eagles' decision to trade Cam Jurgens raises questions about their 2026 plans
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 2h ago · PHI
- 5 Questions with Bleeding Green Nation: Do the Lane Johnson-less Eagles stand a chance?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · JAX / PHI
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · PHI
passingPhiladelphia Eagles ranks in the 45th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · PHI
efficiencyPhiladelphia Eagles ranks in the 65th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · JAX
passingJacksonville Jaguars ranks in the 74th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · JAX
efficiencyJacksonville Jaguars ranks in the 94th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Philadelphia Eagles 43.3%.
- Rolling efficiency: Philadelphia Eagles 32.2%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 60%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Philadelphia Eagles and 4 for Jacksonville Jaguars; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars: the v0.3 ensemble places Jacksonville Jaguars at 60%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Philadelphia Eagles and 4 for Jacksonville Jaguars; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (60%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.