Away
San Francisco 49ers
4-0
Home
Seattle Seahawks
3-1
Model Win Probability
San Francisco 49ers · Away
43%
separation14%
Seattle Seahawks · Home
57%
- Elo component
- 41% SF
- Efficiency component
- 50% SF
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-08T00:11:51.561047Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| SF | Metric | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 0.148 | EPA / Play | 0.040 |
| 50.1% | Success Rate | 46.2% |
| 0.304 | Dropback EPA | 0.189 |
| -0.058 | Rush EPA | -0.131 |
| 13.3% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.8% |
| 52.0% | 3rd Down Conversion | 39.2% |
| 72.3% | Red Zone TD Rate | 53.2% |
| 0.038 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.128 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Lumen Field
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Seattle Seahawks home game
Player Impact
Brock Purdy
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 79/113
- Pass yds
- 1007
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 8.9
- Sacks
- 0
Christian McCaffrey
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 50
- Rush yds
- 218
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 16
- Rush share
- 43.5%
Kaelon Black
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 31
- Rush yds
- 120
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 27%
Mike Evans
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 213
- YPR
- 12.5
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 21.8%
George Kittle
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 244
- YPR
- 15.2
- Rec TD
- 4
- Target share
- 20%
Away · San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy
QB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 79/113
- Pass yds
- 1007
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 8.9
- Sacks
- 0
Christian McCaffrey
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 50
- Rush yds
- 218
- YPC
- 4.4
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 16
- Rush share
- 43.5%
Kaelon Black
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 31
- Rush yds
- 120
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
- Rush share
- 27%
Mike Evans
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 213
- YPR
- 12.5
- Rec TD
- 2
- Target share
- 21.8%
George Kittle
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 244
- YPR
- 15.2
- Rec TD
- 4
- Target share
- 20%
Home · Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold
QB2026 Weeks 1, 3, 4
- CMP/ATT
- 45/69
- Pass yds
- 560
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 8.1
- Sacks
- 4
Emanuel Wilson
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Carries
- 53
- Rush yds
- 190
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 3
- Rush share
- 46.9%
Jadarian Price
RB2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 119
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
- Rush share
- 24.8%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 42
- Rec
- 32
- Rec yds
- 481
- YPR
- 15
- Rec TD
- 6
- Target share
- 36.5%
AJ Barner
TE2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3, 4
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 102
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 0
- Target share
- 13%
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 4 gamesAway · San Francisco 49ers
Home · Seattle Seahawks
Latest News
- Cheers! NFL now says it's OK to celebrate by pretending to drink a beverage
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · DAL / IND / SF
- Seahawks All-22 review: The good and bad from Seattle’s win over the LA Chargers
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · LAC / SEA
- The 49ers proved that good teams can win ugly
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · SF
- Jacoby Brissett: Last three losses have upped urgency, but there's no panic
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 2h ago · ARI / LAC / NYG / SEA / SF
- Pre-Snap Reads: Do the Seahawks have an RB problem?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · SEA
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · SF
passingSan Francisco 49ers ranks in the 100th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · SF
efficiencySan Francisco 49ers ranks in the 35th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Passing profile · SEA
passingSeattle Seahawks ranks in the 81th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Defense profile · SEA
efficiencySeattle Seahawks ranks in the 97th league percentile entering Week 5 based on blended 2025–26 play data.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: San Francisco 49ers 40.6%.
- Rolling efficiency: San Francisco 49ers 49.9%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Seattle Seahawks at 57%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for San Francisco 49ers and 4 for Seattle Seahawks; prior-season form is blended in.
- The components agree, but a single game has substantial variance.
- Thursday's official statuses are final; later-week injury entries are Wednesday practices and may change.
Model Analysis
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: the v0.3 ensemble places Seattle Seahawks at 57%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for San Francisco 49ers and 4 for Seattle Seahawks; prior-season form is blended in. No odds, spreads, moneylines, consensus, or public picks are inputs.
Forecast
Model pick: Seattle Seahawks (57%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.