Away
Arizona Cardinals
1-4
Home
Los Angeles Rams
2-3
Model Win Probability
Arizona Cardinals · Away
20%
separation60%
Los Angeles Rams · Home
80%
- Elo component
- 19% ARI
- Efficiency component
- 16% ARI
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| ARI | Metric | LA |
|---|---|---|
| -0.021 | EPA / Play | 0.109 |
| 43.6% | Success Rate | 50.3% |
| 0.036 | Dropback EPA | 0.183 |
| -0.153 | Rush EPA | -0.028 |
| 9.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 14.1% |
| 42.7% | 3rd Down Conversion | 44.2% |
| 59.4% | Red Zone TD Rate | 63.9% |
| 0.105 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.053 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- SoFi Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- matrixturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 6 days
- Site
- Los Angeles Rams home game
Player Impact
Jacoby Brissett
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 132/199
- Pass yds
- 1110
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 5.6
- Sacks
- 12
Jeremiyah Love
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 67
- Rush yds
- 245
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 11
Tyler Allgeier
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 119
- YPC
- 3.4
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 12
Michael Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 51
- Rec
- 29
- Rec yds
- 288
- YPR
- 9.9
- Rec TD
- 1
Kendrick Bourne
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 178
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 0
Away · Arizona Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 132/199
- Pass yds
- 1110
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 5.6
- Sacks
- 12
Jeremiyah Love
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 67
- Rush yds
- 245
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 11
Tyler Allgeier
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 119
- YPC
- 3.4
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 12
Michael Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 51
- Rec
- 29
- Rec yds
- 288
- YPR
- 9.9
- Rec TD
- 1
Kendrick Bourne
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 178
- YPR
- 10.5
- Rec TD
- 0
Home · Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 139/216
- Pass yds
- 1572
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 6
- Y/A
- 7.3
- Sacks
- 7
Kyren Williams
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 70
- Rush yds
- 343
- YPC
- 4.9
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 33
- Rec
- 27
Blake Corum
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 38
- Rush yds
- 181
- YPC
- 4.8
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 7
Davante Adams
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 45
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 441
- YPR
- 16.3
- Rec TD
- 4
Puka Nacua
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Targets
- 45
- Rec
- 31
- Rec yds
- 337
- YPR
- 10.9
- Rec TD
- 1
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Arizona Cardinals
Home · Los Angeles Rams
Latest News
- Sources: NFL expected to suspend Rams LT Jackson two games for punch
ESPN NFL · just now · BUF / LA
- Sources: Rams release kicker Mevis after miscues in OT loss to Bills
ESPN NFL · just now · BUF / LA / NYJ
- It's official: Rams LT Alaric Jackson suspended two games
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · just now · LA
- It's official: Rams LT Alaric Jackson suspended two games
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · LA
- Buzz: Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams put on offensive show
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · BUF / LA
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · ARI
passingArizona Cardinals rank in the 39th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · LA
passingLos Angeles Rams rank in the 81th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · ARI
efficiencyArizona Cardinals rank in the 6th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · LA
efficiencyLos Angeles Rams rank in the 77th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Arizona Cardinals 18.7%.
- Rolling efficiency: Arizona Cardinals 15.6%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Los Angeles Rams at 80%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Arizona Cardinals and 5 for Los Angeles Rams; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday.
Model Analysis
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: the v0.3 ensemble places Los Angeles Rams at 80%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Arizona Cardinals and 5 for Los Angeles Rams; prior-season form is blended in. Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Los Angeles Rams (80%). Signal: Strong; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.