Away
Seattle Seahawks
3-2
Home
Denver Broncos
3-2
Model Win Probability
Seattle Seahawks · Away
47%
separation6%
Denver Broncos · Home
53%
- Elo component
- 49% SEA
- Efficiency component
- 45% SEA
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| SEA | Metric | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 0.005 | EPA / Play | -0.008 |
| 44.9% | Success Rate | 42.1% |
| 0.154 | Dropback EPA | 0.046 |
| -0.167 | Rush EPA | -0.086 |
| 13.4% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.1% |
| 38.4% | 3rd Down Conversion | 40.5% |
| 57.9% | Red Zone TD Rate | 61.3% |
| -0.130 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.063 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Empower Field at Mile High
- Kickoff
- Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 4 days
- Home rest
- 4 days
- Site
- Denver Broncos home game
Player Impact
Sam Darnold
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- CMP/ATT
- 63/98
- Pass yds
- 755
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 7.7
- Sacks
- 9
Emanuel Wilson
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 73
- Rush yds
- 251
- YPC
- 3.4
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
Jadarian Price
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 119
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 50
- Rec
- 37
- Rec yds
- 583
- YPR
- 15.8
- Rec TD
- 7
Rashid Shaheed
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 96
- YPR
- 10.7
- Rec TD
- 0
Away · Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- CMP/ATT
- 63/98
- Pass yds
- 755
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 7.7
- Sacks
- 9
Emanuel Wilson
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 73
- Rush yds
- 251
- YPC
- 3.4
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
Jadarian Price
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 119
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 50
- Rec
- 37
- Rec yds
- 583
- YPR
- 15.8
- Rec TD
- 7
Rashid Shaheed
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 96
- YPR
- 10.7
- Rec TD
- 0
Home · Denver Broncos
Bo Nix
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 97/162
- Pass yds
- 942
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 5.8
- Sacks
- 6
J.K. Dobbins
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 64
- Rush yds
- 229
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
RJ Harvey
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 56
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 20
Jaylen Waddle
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 31
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 204
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 1
Courtland Sutton
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 11
- Rec yds
- 104
- YPR
- 9.5
- Rec TD
- 1
Injuries & Availability
Away · Seattle Seahawks
Zach CharbonnetRB
LIMITEDKnee; Monday estimated limited practice. Coach said he was not expected to play Thursday as of Monday; final designation pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR
LIMITEDAnkle; Monday estimated limited practice, not a final game designation.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Drake ThomasLB
UNKNOWNAnkle; Monday estimated did not practice, final designation pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Home · Denver Broncos
Patrick Surtain IICB
UNKNOWNAnkle; Monday estimated did not practice, final designation pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Talanoa HufangaS
UNKNOWNAnkle; Monday estimated did not practice, final designation pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Riley MossCB
LIMITEDRibs; Monday estimated limited practice, final designation pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Seattle Seahawks
Home · Denver Broncos
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · SEA
passingSeattle Seahawks rank in the 74th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · DEN
passingDenver Broncos rank in the 42th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · SEA
efficiencySeattle Seahawks rank in the 97th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · DEN
efficiencyDenver Broncos rank in the 84th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Availability watch
availabilityTuesday news is preliminary. Check the official practice reports and final game designations before kickoff. The statistical probability does not include a separate injury adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Seattle Seahawks 48.9%.
- Rolling efficiency: Seattle Seahawks 44.5%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Denver Broncos at 53%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Seattle Seahawks and 5 for Denver Broncos; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment.
Model Analysis
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos: the v0.3 ensemble places Denver Broncos at 53%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Seattle Seahawks and 5 for Denver Broncos; prior-season form is blended in. Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Denver Broncos (53%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.