Away
Baltimore Ravens
4-1
Home
Cleveland Browns
3-2
Model Win Probability
Baltimore Ravens · Away
65%
separation30%
Cleveland Browns · Home
35%
- Elo component
- 68% BAL
- Efficiency component
- 71% BAL
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| BAL | Metric | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 0.077 | EPA / Play | -0.139 |
| 46.4% | Success Rate | 36.8% |
| 0.142 | Dropback EPA | -0.099 |
| 0.031 | Rush EPA | -0.198 |
| 15.0% | Explosive Play Rate | 9.3% |
| 40.5% | 3rd Down Conversion | 34.7% |
| 59.1% | Red Zone TD Rate | 49.0% |
| 0.008 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.054 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Huntington Bank Field
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Cleveland Browns home game
Player Impact
Tyler Huntley
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 2 games
- CMP/ATT
- 32/41
- Pass yds
- 264
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 6.4
- Sacks
- 3
Derrick Henry
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 113
- Rush yds
- 476
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 8
Justice Hill
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 18
- Rush yds
- 133
- YPC
- 7.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 7
Zay Flowers
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 31
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 405
- YPR
- 15.6
- Rec TD
- 2
Rashod Bateman
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 233
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Baltimore Ravens
Tyler Huntley
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 2 games
- CMP/ATT
- 32/41
- Pass yds
- 264
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 6.4
- Sacks
- 3
Derrick Henry
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 113
- Rush yds
- 476
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 8
Justice Hill
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 18
- Rush yds
- 133
- YPC
- 7.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 7
Zay Flowers
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 31
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 405
- YPR
- 15.6
- Rec TD
- 2
Rashod Bateman
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 233
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 95/148
- Pass yds
- 1010
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.8
- Sacks
- 19
Quinshon Judkins
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 73
- Rush yds
- 221
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 18
Raheim Sanders
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 9
- Rush yds
- 43
- YPC
- 4.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 11
Denzel Boston
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 330
- YPR
- 20.6
- Rec TD
- 3
KC Concepcion
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 149
- YPR
- 8.3
- Rec TD
- 0
Injuries & Availability
Away · Baltimore Ravens
Lamar JacksonQB
UNKNOWNAnkle; Week 6 practice and starter status not yet confirmed after missing Week 5.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Home · Cleveland Browns
Carson SchwesingerLB
UNKNOWNGrade 1 ankle sprain reported after Week 5; availability depends on recovery.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Baltimore Ravens
Home · Cleveland Browns
Latest News
- Removing 'a dark cloud': How the Ravens' clutch play ended a 581-game streak
ESPN NFL · just now · BAL
- Cleveland Browns: Is Minkah Fitzpatrick a dirty player? You make the call!
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · CLE
- Ravens release WR Chris Moore with rookie Ja’Kobi Lane nearing return
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · BAL
- Browns make 6 roster moves on Tuesday, including adding RB Audric Estime, placing RB on IR
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · CLE
- Browns place Raheim Sanders on IR, sign Audric Estime off Vikings practice squad
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · CLE / MIN
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · BAL
passingBaltimore Ravens rank in the 71th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · CLE
passingCleveland Browns rank in the 3th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · BAL
efficiencyBaltimore Ravens rank in the 48th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · CLE
efficiencyCleveland Browns rank in the 81th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Availability watch
availabilityTuesday news is preliminary. Check the official practice reports and final game designations before kickoff. The statistical probability does not include a separate injury adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Baltimore Ravens 67.5%.
- Rolling efficiency: Baltimore Ravens 71.1%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Baltimore Ravens at 65%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Baltimore Ravens and 5 for Cleveland Browns; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment.
Model Analysis
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: the v0.3 ensemble places Baltimore Ravens at 65%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Baltimore Ravens and 5 for Cleveland Browns; prior-season form is blended in. Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Baltimore Ravens (65%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.