Away
Buffalo Bills
4-1
Home
Las Vegas Raiders
3-2
Model Win Probability
Buffalo Bills · Away
74%
separation48%
Las Vegas Raiders · Home
26%
- Elo component
- 79% BUF
- Efficiency component
- 78% BUF
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| BUF | Metric | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 0.165 | EPA / Play | -0.120 |
| 48.8% | Success Rate | 40.0% |
| 0.263 | Dropback EPA | -0.016 |
| 0.018 | Rush EPA | -0.282 |
| 16.1% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.4% |
| 50.4% | 3rd Down Conversion | 38.7% |
| 71.1% | Red Zone TD Rate | 53.8% |
| 0.048 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.001 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Allegiant Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 6 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Las Vegas Raiders home game
Player Impact
Josh Allen
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 91/138
- Pass yds
- 1249
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 9.1
- Sacks
- 10
James Cook
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 95
- Rush yds
- 532
- YPC
- 5.6
- Rush TD
- 5
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 7
Ray Davis
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 4
- Rush yds
- 8
- YPC
- 2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
Khalil Shakir
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 256
- YPR
- 14.2
- Rec TD
- 0
DJ Moore
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 178
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 91/138
- Pass yds
- 1249
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 9.1
- Sacks
- 10
James Cook
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 95
- Rush yds
- 532
- YPC
- 5.6
- Rush TD
- 5
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 7
Ray Davis
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 4
- Rush yds
- 8
- YPC
- 2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
Khalil Shakir
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 256
- YPR
- 14.2
- Rec TD
- 0
DJ Moore
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 12
- Rec yds
- 178
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · Las Vegas Raiders
Kirk Cousins
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 112/172
- Pass yds
- 1269
- Pass TD
- 12
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 8
Ashton Jeanty
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 88
- Rush yds
- 291
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 22
Mike Washington Jr.
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 25
- Rush yds
- 125
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 2
Tre Tucker
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 28
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 274
- YPR
- 14.4
- Rec TD
- 1
Cody White
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 108
- YPR
- 15.4
- Rec TD
- 3
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Buffalo Bills
Home · Las Vegas Raiders
Latest News
- Sources: NFL expected to suspend Rams LT Jackson two games for punch
ESPN NFL · just now · BUF / LA
- Bills' Brady warns RB Cook of 'consequences' for costly fumbles
ESPN NFL · just now · BUF
- Sources: Rams release kicker Mevis after miscues in OT loss to Bills
ESPN NFL · just now · BUF / LA / NYJ
- Bills re-sign familiar pass rusher, release DB who played 31 snaps in Los Angeles
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · BUF
- Bills HC Joe Brady on James Cook's fumbles: 'It's gotta improve, or the carries are gonna decrease'
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · BUF
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · BUF
passingBuffalo Bills rank in the 94th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · LV
passingLas Vegas Raiders rank in the 23th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · BUF
efficiencyBuffalo Bills rank in the 29th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · LV
efficiencyLas Vegas Raiders rank in the 58th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Buffalo Bills 78.5%.
- Rolling efficiency: Buffalo Bills 78.0%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Buffalo Bills at 74%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Buffalo Bills and 5 for Las Vegas Raiders; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday.
Model Analysis
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders: the v0.3 ensemble places Buffalo Bills at 74%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Buffalo Bills and 5 for Las Vegas Raiders; prior-season form is blended in. Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Buffalo Bills (74%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.