Away
Carolina Panthers
2-2
Home
Philadelphia Eagles
2-3
Model Win Probability
Carolina Panthers · Away
39%
separation22%
Philadelphia Eagles · Home
61%
- Elo component
- 30% CAR
- Efficiency component
- 58% CAR
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| CAR | Metric | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 0.003 | EPA / Play | -0.024 |
| 43.3% | Success Rate | 40.4% |
| 0.078 | Dropback EPA | 0.054 |
| -0.122 | Rush EPA | -0.111 |
| 12.2% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.4% |
| 38.1% | 3rd Down Conversion | 38.7% |
| 59.8% | Red Zone TD Rate | 66.6% |
| 0.048 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.017 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Lincoln Financial Field
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 14 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Philadelphia Eagles home game
Player Impact
Bryce Young
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- CMP/ATT
- 101/162
- Pass yds
- 1268
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 7.8
- Sacks
- 10
Chuba Hubbard
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 61
- Rush yds
- 306
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 10
AJ Dillon
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 43
- YPC
- 2.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
Tetairoa McMillan
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 39
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 385
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 2
Jalen Coker
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 222
- YPR
- 12.3
- Rec TD
- 2
Away · Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- CMP/ATT
- 101/162
- Pass yds
- 1268
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 7.8
- Sacks
- 10
Chuba Hubbard
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 61
- Rush yds
- 306
- YPC
- 5
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 10
AJ Dillon
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 43
- YPC
- 2.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
Tetairoa McMillan
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 39
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 385
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 2
Jalen Coker
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 222
- YPR
- 12.3
- Rec TD
- 2
Home · Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 89/154
- Pass yds
- 933
- Pass TD
- 8
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 13
Saquon Barkley
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 36
- Rush yds
- 182
- YPC
- 5.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
Tank Bigsby
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 91
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
Dontayvion Wicks
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 28
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 260
- YPR
- 15.3
- Rec TD
- 1
DeVonta Smith
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 235
- YPR
- 12.4
- Rec TD
- 1
Injuries & Availability
Home · Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon BarkleyRB
UNKNOWNHamstring; missed Week 5; Week 6 designation pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
DeVonta SmithWR
UNKNOWNHamstring; missed Week 5; Week 6 designation pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Carolina Panthers
Home · Philadelphia Eagles
Latest News
- Panthers OL Moton participates in 1st padded practice since clot diagnosis
ESPN NFL · just now · CAR
- Eagles DC: 'Pretty miraculous' if Hunt (ankle, knee) plays vs. Panthers
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · CAR / PHI
- Eagles host familiar running back on free agent visit [UPDATE]
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · PHI
- NFL Trade Rumors: Howie Roseman shopping for starting caliber offensive lineman
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · PHI
- Nick Sirianni's kickoff decision against the Jaguars wasn't as dumb as it looked. Here's why
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · JAX / PHI
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · CAR
passingCarolina Panthers rank in the 52th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · PHI
passingPhiladelphia Eagles rank in the 48th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · CAR
efficiencyCarolina Panthers rank in the 32th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · PHI
efficiencyPhiladelphia Eagles rank in the 68th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Availability watch
availabilityTuesday news is preliminary. Check the official practice reports and final game designations before kickoff. The statistical probability does not include a separate injury adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Carolina Panthers 30.3%.
- Rolling efficiency: Carolina Panthers 58.4%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Philadelphia Eagles at 61%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Carolina Panthers and 5 for Philadelphia Eagles; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components disagree; one game has substantial variance.
- Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment.
Model Analysis
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: the v0.3 ensemble places Philadelphia Eagles at 61%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 4 current-season games for Carolina Panthers and 5 for Philadelphia Eagles; prior-season form is blended in. Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Philadelphia Eagles (61%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.