Away
Chicago Bears
3-2
Home
Atlanta Falcons
2-3
Model Win Probability
Chicago Bears · Away
52%
separation4%
Atlanta Falcons · Home
48%
- Elo component
- 55% CHI
- Efficiency component
- 51% CHI
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| CHI | Metric | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 0.058 | EPA / Play | -0.014 |
| 45.9% | Success Rate | 44.9% |
| 0.123 | Dropback EPA | 0.008 |
| -0.025 | Rush EPA | -0.053 |
| 12.9% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.9% |
| 44.8% | 3rd Down Conversion | 38.7% |
| 54.3% | Red Zone TD Rate | 64.5% |
| 0.006 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.012 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Atlanta Falcons home game
Player Impact
Tyson Bagent
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- CMP/ATT
- 42/64
- Pass yds
- 409
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.4
- Sacks
- 4
D'Andre Swift
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 78
- Rush yds
- 354
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 14
Kyle Monangai
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 60
- Rush yds
- 324
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
Luther Burden III
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 266
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Rome Odunze
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 273
- YPR
- 16.1
- Rec TD
- 0
Away · Chicago Bears
Tyson Bagent
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- CMP/ATT
- 42/64
- Pass yds
- 409
- Pass TD
- 0
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.4
- Sacks
- 4
D'Andre Swift
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 78
- Rush yds
- 354
- YPC
- 4.5
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 14
Kyle Monangai
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 60
- Rush yds
- 324
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
Luther Burden III
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 266
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Rome Odunze
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 273
- YPR
- 16.1
- Rec TD
- 0
Home · Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- CMP/ATT
- 52/77
- Pass yds
- 719
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 9.3
- Sacks
- 4
Bijan Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 102
- Rush yds
- 580
- YPC
- 5.7
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 18
Brian Robinson
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 51
- Rush yds
- 210
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
Drake London
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 36
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 488
- YPR
- 18.1
- Rec TD
- 0
Jahan Dotson
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 149
- YPR
- 18.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Injuries & Availability
Away · Chicago Bears
Caleb WilliamsQB
UNKNOWNHamstring; coach said Week 6 return is close but no starter decision has been made.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Home · Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr.QB
UNKNOWNRibs; exited Week 5 and Week 6 starter status is pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Chicago Bears
Home · Atlanta Falcons
Latest News
- Bears DE Sweat suspended two games for violating NFL's PED policy
ESPN NFL · just now · CHI
- Hot Take Tuesday: Bears-Packers: A Brutal Beating and the End of a Brutal Discourse
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · CHI / GB
- Bears activate DE Shemar Turner from PUP
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · CHI
- Bears activate DE Shemar Turner from PUP
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 2h ago · CHI
- Bears' Montez Sweat suspended two games for violating NFL PED policy
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · CHI
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · CHI
passingChicago Bears rank in the 68th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · ATL
passingAtlanta Falcons rank in the 26th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · CHI
efficiencyChicago Bears rank in the 52th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · ATL
efficiencyAtlanta Falcons rank in the 65th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Availability watch
availabilityTuesday news is preliminary. Check the official practice reports and final game designations before kickoff. The statistical probability does not include a separate injury adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Chicago Bears 55.2%.
- Rolling efficiency: Chicago Bears 50.8%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Chicago Bears at 52%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Chicago Bears and 5 for Atlanta Falcons; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment.
Model Analysis
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: the v0.3 ensemble places Chicago Bears at 52%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Chicago Bears and 5 for Atlanta Falcons; prior-season form is blended in. Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Chicago Bears (52%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.