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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Sunday Night · Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ETDAL @ GB
Dallas Cowboys

Away

Dallas Cowboys

2-3

Green Bay Packers

Home

Green Bay Packers

3-2

Model Win Probability

Dallas Cowboys · Away

38%

Model
separation24%

Green Bay Packers · Home

62%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
32% DAL
Efficiency component
51% DAL
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

97
77
Offense
84
87
Passing
77
10
Rushing
0
39
Defense
0
55
Pass Rush
87
47
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

DALMetricGB
0.129EPA / Play0.071
48.1%Success Rate45.0%
0.216Dropback EPA0.217
-0.030Rush EPA-0.191
11.7%Explosive Play Rate13.6%
46.5%3rd Down Conversion42.9%
66.3%Red Zone TD Rate55.8%
0.172Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.016

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Lambeau Field
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
10 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Green Bay Packers home game

Player Impact

Dak Prescott

QB

2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games

CMP/ATT
129/192
Pass yds
1381
Pass TD
9
INT
3
Y/A
7.2
Sacks
6

Javonte Williams

RB

2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games

Carries
74
Rush yds
276
YPC
3.7
Rush TD
6
Targets
20
Rec
17

Tyler Goodson

RB

2026 Weeks 1–5; 2 games

Carries
9
Rush yds
34
YPC
3.8
Rush TD
0
Targets
2
Rec
1

CeeDee Lamb

WR

2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games

Targets
51
Rec
39
Rec yds
507
YPR
13
Rec TD
4

George Pickens

WR

2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games

Targets
41
Rec
27
Rec yds
355
YPR
13.1
Rec TD
1

Injuries & Availability

Home · Green Bay Packers

Javon HargraveDL

UNKNOWN

Torn Achilles reported after Week 5; expected to miss rest of season, final roster move pending.

Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.

Micah ParsonsEDGE

PUP

Recovering from ACL injury; team said he has not been cleared to return to practice.

Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.

Josh JacobsRB

UNKNOWN

On commissioner exempt list; coach had no status update Monday. Availability remains unresolved.

Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 5 games

Away · Dallas Cowboys

Q1
30
Q2
23
Q3
39
Q4
46

Home · Green Bay Packers

Q1
23
Q2
34
Q3
19
Q4
25

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · DAL

passing

Dallas Cowboys rank in the 84th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.

Passing profile · GB

passing

Green Bay Packers rank in the 87th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.

Defense profile · DAL

efficiency

Dallas Cowboys rank in the 0th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.

Defense profile · GB

efficiency

Green Bay Packers rank in the 39th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.

Availability watch

availability

Tuesday news is preliminary. Check the official practice reports and final game designations before kickoff. The statistical probability does not include a separate injury adjustment.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Dallas Cowboys 32.1%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Dallas Cowboys 50.6%.
  • The blended, calibrated estimate favors Green Bay Packers at 62%; a single game remains uncertain.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Dallas Cowboys and 5 for Green Bay Packers; prior-season form is blended in.
  • Model components disagree; one game has substantial variance.
  • Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment.

Model Analysis

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers: the v0.3 ensemble places Green Bay Packers at 62%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Dallas Cowboys and 5 for Green Bay Packers; prior-season form is blended in. Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.

Forecast

Model pick: Green Bay Packers (62%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.