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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ETHOU @ JAX
Houston Texans

Away

Houston Texans

1-4

Jacksonville Jaguars

Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-1

Model Win Probability

Houston Texans · Away

42%

Model
separation16%

Jacksonville Jaguars · Home

58%

Signal: Lean· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
40% HOU
Efficiency component
46% HOU
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

42
71
Offense
61
77
Passing
3
58
Rushing
90
94
Defense
90
16
Pass Rush
20
70
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

HOUMetricJAX
-0.004EPA / Play0.068
42.3%Success Rate45.1%
0.107Dropback EPA0.170
-0.212Rush EPA-0.075
11.6%Explosive Play Rate13.3%
39.9%3rd Down Conversion42.7%
48.3%Red Zone TD Rate64.1%
-0.079Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.087

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Wembley Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Neutral site

Player Impact

C.J. Stroud

QB

2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games

CMP/ATT
119/185
Pass yds
1402
Pass TD
6
INT
0
Y/A
7.6
Sacks
14

David Montgomery

RB

2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games

Carries
52
Rush yds
138
YPC
2.7
Rush TD
2
Targets
7
Rec
7

Woody Marks

RB

2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games

Carries
43
Rush yds
149
YPC
3.5
Rush TD
2
Targets
13
Rec
11

Xavier Hutchinson

WR

2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games

Targets
31
Rec
16
Rec yds
231
YPR
14.4
Rec TD
0

Nico Collins

WR

2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games

Targets
25
Rec
19
Rec yds
249
YPR
13.1
Rec TD
3

Marvin Harrison Jr.

WR

2026 Weeks 1–4 with Arizona; acquired by Houston Oct 12; no Texans game sample

Targets
13
Rec
5
Rec yds
85
Rec TD
1

Injuries & Availability

Away · Houston Texans

David MontgomeryRB

UNKNOWN

Groin; coach described him as week to week after Week 5, final Week 6 designation pending.

Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.

Jalen PitreS

UNKNOWN

Shoulder; coach described him as week to week, final Week 6 designation pending.

Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.

Home · Jacksonville Jaguars

Anton HarrisonOL

IR

Knee; placed on Reserve/Injured Oct 13 and unavailable Week 6.

Official Reserve/Injured placement; unavailable Week 6.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 5 games

Away · Houston Texans

Q1
20
Q2
39
Q3
17
Q4
34

Home · Jacksonville Jaguars

Q1
24
Q2
44
Q3
33
Q4
22

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · HOU

passing

Houston Texans rank in the 61th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.

Passing profile · JAX

passing

Jacksonville Jaguars rank in the 77th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.

Defense profile · HOU

efficiency

Houston Texans rank in the 90th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.

Defense profile · JAX

efficiency

Jacksonville Jaguars rank in the 94th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.

Availability watch

availability

Tuesday news is preliminary. Check the official practice reports and final game designations before kickoff. The statistical probability does not include a separate injury adjustment.

Houston trade context

availability

Houston acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. on Oct 12. His Arizona statistics are shown separately; the model uses completed Houston games and contains no post-trade adjustment.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Houston Texans 40.0%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Houston Texans 46.0%.
  • The blended, calibrated estimate favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 58%; a single game remains uncertain.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Houston Texans and 5 for Jacksonville Jaguars; prior-season form is blended in.
  • Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
  • Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. Houston acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. after Week 5; the model has no post-trade Houston sample or trade adjustment.

Model Analysis

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: the v0.3 ensemble places Jacksonville Jaguars at 58%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Houston Texans and 5 for Jacksonville Jaguars; prior-season form is blended in. Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. Houston acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. after Week 5; the model has no post-trade Houston sample or trade adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.

Forecast

Model pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (58%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.