Away
Los Angeles Chargers
0-5
Home
Kansas City Chiefs
4-0
Model Win Probability
Los Angeles Chargers · Away
29%
separation42%
Kansas City Chiefs · Home
71%
- Elo component
- 29% LAC
- Efficiency component
- 23% LAC
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| LAC | Metric | KC |
|---|---|---|
| -0.087 | EPA / Play | 0.071 |
| 41.6% | Success Rate | 45.3% |
| -0.038 | Dropback EPA | 0.117 |
| -0.136 | Rush EPA | -0.000 |
| 10.8% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.9% |
| 44.0% | 3rd Down Conversion | 41.6% |
| 55.9% | Red Zone TD Rate | 59.1% |
| -0.073 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.035 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 14 days
- Site
- Kansas City Chiefs home game
Player Impact
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 85/143
- Pass yds
- 937
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 6.6
- Sacks
- 17
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 73
- Rush yds
- 271
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 33
- Rush yds
- 135
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 12
Tre Harris
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 225
- YPR
- 15
- Rec TD
- 0
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 108
- YPR
- 15.4
- Rec TD
- 0
Away · Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 85/143
- Pass yds
- 937
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 6.6
- Sacks
- 17
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 73
- Rush yds
- 271
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 5
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 33
- Rush yds
- 135
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 12
Tre Harris
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 225
- YPR
- 15
- Rec TD
- 0
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 7
- Rec yds
- 108
- YPR
- 15.4
- Rec TD
- 0
Home · Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- CMP/ATT
- 82/128
- Pass yds
- 1037
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 8.1
- Sacks
- 6
Kenneth Walker III
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 87
- Rush yds
- 537
- YPC
- 6.2
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 12
Emmett Johnson
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 16
- Rush yds
- 56
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
Xavier Worthy
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 133
- YPR
- 9.5
- Rec TD
- 1
Rashee Rice
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 190
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Los Angeles Chargers
Home · Kansas City Chiefs
Latest News
- Chargers agree to terms with QB Jake Browning
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · just now · LAC
- Chargers agree to terms with QB Jake Browning
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · LAC
- Chargers sign former Bengals QB Jake Browning
Yahoo Sports NFL · just now · CIN / LAC
- Chiefs put WR Tyquan Thornton on IR, sign LB Cam Jones to active roster
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · KC
- Chiefs put WR Tyquan Thornton on IR, sign LB Cam Jones to active roster
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 2h ago · KC
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · LAC
passingLos Angeles Chargers rank in the 16th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · KC
passingKansas City Chiefs rank in the 65th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · LAC
efficiencyLos Angeles Chargers rank in the 87th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · KC
efficiencyKansas City Chiefs rank in the 74th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Los Angeles Chargers 29.2%.
- Rolling efficiency: Los Angeles Chargers 22.7%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Kansas City Chiefs at 71%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Los Angeles Chargers and 4 for Kansas City Chiefs; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday.
Model Analysis
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: the v0.3 ensemble places Kansas City Chiefs at 71%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Los Angeles Chargers and 4 for Kansas City Chiefs; prior-season form is blended in. Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Kansas City Chiefs (71%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.