Away
New Orleans Saints
1-4
Home
New York Giants
3-1-1
Model Win Probability
New Orleans Saints · Away
42%
separation16%
New York Giants · Home
58%
- Elo component
- 39% NO
- Efficiency component
- 48% NO
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NO | Metric | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| -0.072 | EPA / Play | 0.016 |
| 42.4% | Success Rate | 42.6% |
| -0.024 | Dropback EPA | 0.096 |
| -0.159 | Rush EPA | -0.109 |
| 9.7% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.2% |
| 43.1% | 3rd Down Conversion | 43.7% |
| 56.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 56.5% |
| 0.010 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.080 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- MetLife Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- New York Giants home game
Player Impact
Tyler Shough
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 137/205
- Pass yds
- 1299
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.3
- Sacks
- 13
Travis Etienne
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Carries
- 30
- Rush yds
- 128
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 11
Kendre Miller
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 29
- Rush yds
- 83
- YPC
- 2.9
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
Chris Olave
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 54
- Rec
- 39
- Rec yds
- 537
- YPR
- 13.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Devaughn Vele
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 37
- Rec
- 25
- Rec yds
- 252
- YPR
- 10.1
- Rec TD
- 2
Away · New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 137/205
- Pass yds
- 1299
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.3
- Sacks
- 13
Travis Etienne
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Carries
- 30
- Rush yds
- 128
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 11
Kendre Miller
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 29
- Rush yds
- 83
- YPC
- 2.9
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
Chris Olave
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 54
- Rec
- 39
- Rec yds
- 537
- YPR
- 13.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Devaughn Vele
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 37
- Rec
- 25
- Rec yds
- 252
- YPR
- 10.1
- Rec TD
- 2
Home · New York Giants
Jameis Winston
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- CMP/ATT
- 76/132
- Pass yds
- 805
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 11
Cam Skattebo
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 81
- Rush yds
- 294
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 10
Najee Harris
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 27
- Rush yds
- 97
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 1
- Rec
- 1
Malik Nabers
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 46
- Rec
- 29
- Rec yds
- 329
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 2
Malachi Fields
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 10
- Rec yds
- 146
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · New Orleans Saints
Home · New York Giants
Latest News
- Saints' owner rips 1-4 start in public callout, says fans 'deserve better'
ESPN NFL · just now · NO
- The Saints' offense keeps declining each week. Can they turn it around?
ESPN NFL · just now · NO
- 4 takeaways from Giants OL Jon Runyan Jr.: An optimistic progress report
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · NYG
- Saints waive CB Jayden Price, sign CB Decamerion Richardson
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 1h ago · MIN / NO
- Saints waive CB Jayden Price, sign CB Decamerion Richardson
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · MIN / NO
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · NO
passingNew Orleans Saints rank in the 19th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · NYG
passingNew York Giants rank in the 58th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · NO
efficiencyNew Orleans Saints rank in the 45th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · NYG
efficiencyNew York Giants rank in the 16th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: New Orleans Saints 38.7%.
- Rolling efficiency: New Orleans Saints 48.0%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors New York Giants at 58%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for New Orleans Saints and 5 for New York Giants; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday.
Model Analysis
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: the v0.3 ensemble places New York Giants at 58%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for New Orleans Saints and 5 for New York Giants; prior-season form is blended in. Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: New York Giants (58%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.