Away
New York Jets
2-3
Home
New England Patriots
3-2
Model Win Probability
New York Jets · Away
22%
separation56%
New England Patriots · Home
78%
- Elo component
- 19% NYJ
- Efficiency component
- 18% NYJ
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NYJ | Metric | NE |
|---|---|---|
| -0.098 | EPA / Play | 0.117 |
| 40.9% | Success Rate | 47.1% |
| -0.081 | Dropback EPA | 0.272 |
| -0.145 | Rush EPA | -0.113 |
| 9.8% | Explosive Play Rate | 14.3% |
| 36.4% | 3rd Down Conversion | 43.6% |
| 49.6% | Red Zone TD Rate | 60.3% |
| 0.075 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.030 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Gillette Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- New England Patriots home game
Player Impact
Geno Smith
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 102/147
- Pass yds
- 1084
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 16
Braelon Allen
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 57
- Rush yds
- 236
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 7
Breece Hall
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Carries
- 51
- Rush yds
- 163
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 10
Garrett Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 42
- Rec
- 31
- Rec yds
- 374
- YPR
- 12.1
- Rec TD
- 3
Adonai Mitchell
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 2 games
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 123
- YPR
- 13.7
- Rec TD
- 0
Away · New York Jets
Geno Smith
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 102/147
- Pass yds
- 1084
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 7.4
- Sacks
- 16
Braelon Allen
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 57
- Rush yds
- 236
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 7
Breece Hall
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- Carries
- 51
- Rush yds
- 163
- YPC
- 3.2
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 10
Garrett Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 42
- Rec
- 31
- Rec yds
- 374
- YPR
- 12.1
- Rec TD
- 3
Adonai Mitchell
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 2 games
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 9
- Rec yds
- 123
- YPR
- 13.7
- Rec TD
- 0
Home · New England Patriots
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 99/151
- Pass yds
- 1228
- Pass TD
- 8
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 8.1
- Sacks
- 11
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 57
- Rush yds
- 227
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 15
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 42
- Rush yds
- 163
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 2
Romeo Doubs
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 23
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 219
- YPR
- 16.8
- Rec TD
- 2
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 147
- YPR
- 11.3
- Rec TD
- 2
Injuries & Availability
Home · New England Patriots
TreVeyon HendersonRB
UNKNOWNReported high ankle sprain; expected to miss multiple weeks, no Week 6 final designation yet.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Will CampbellOL
UNKNOWNReported right MCL sprain; expected to miss time, final designation pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · New York Jets
Home · New England Patriots
Latest News
- Sources: Rams release kicker Mevis after miscues in OT loss to Bills
ESPN NFL · just now · BUF / LA / NYJ
- Source: Patriots' Campbell has MCL sprain, to miss game action
ESPN NFL · just now · NE
- Jets host veteran EDGE Matt Judon for a workout
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · NYJ
- Sources: Pats RB Henderson out multiple weeks with high ankle sprain
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · NE
- Coaching matters, Klint Kubiak’s bad day at the office
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · LV / NE
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · NYJ
passingNew York Jets rank in the 10th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · NE
passingNew England Patriots rank in the 100th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · NYJ
efficiencyNew York Jets rank in the 23th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · NE
efficiencyNew England Patriots rank in the 71th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Availability watch
availabilityTuesday news is preliminary. Check the official practice reports and final game designations before kickoff. The statistical probability does not include a separate injury adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: New York Jets 19.4%.
- Rolling efficiency: New York Jets 18.4%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors New England Patriots at 78%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for New York Jets and 5 for New England Patriots; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment.
Model Analysis
New York Jets at New England Patriots: the v0.3 ensemble places New England Patriots at 78%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for New York Jets and 5 for New England Patriots; prior-season form is blended in. Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: New England Patriots (78%). Signal: Strong; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.