Away
Pittsburgh Steelers
3-2
Home
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1-4
Model Win Probability
Pittsburgh Steelers · Away
54%
separation8%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Home
46%
- Elo component
- 57% PIT
- Efficiency component
- 53% PIT
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| PIT | Metric | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 0.008 | EPA / Play | -0.030 |
| 43.6% | Success Rate | 42.5% |
| 0.017 | Dropback EPA | 0.012 |
| 0.004 | Rush EPA | -0.061 |
| 11.4% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.1% |
| 41.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 40.9% |
| 58.4% | Red Zone TD Rate | 54.6% |
| 0.014 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.011 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Raymond James Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 10 days
- Site
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers home game
Player Impact
Aaron Rodgers
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 110/184
- Pass yds
- 1234
- Pass TD
- 10
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 6.7
- Sacks
- 14
Jaylen Warren
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 70
- Rush yds
- 410
- YPC
- 5.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 19
Rico Dowdle
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 2 games
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 37
- YPC
- 2.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
DK Metcalf
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 37
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 225
- YPR
- 11.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Roman Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 188
- YPR
- 13.4
- Rec TD
- 2
Away · Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 110/184
- Pass yds
- 1234
- Pass TD
- 10
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 6.7
- Sacks
- 14
Jaylen Warren
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 70
- Rush yds
- 410
- YPC
- 5.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 19
Rico Dowdle
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 2 games
- Carries
- 15
- Rush yds
- 37
- YPC
- 2.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
DK Metcalf
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 37
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 225
- YPR
- 11.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Roman Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 188
- YPR
- 13.4
- Rec TD
- 2
Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jalon Daniels
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- CMP/ATT
- 38/55
- Pass yds
- 337
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 6.1
- Sacks
- 4
Bucky Irving
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 77
- Rush yds
- 406
- YPC
- 5.3
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 15
Kenny Gainwell
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 44
- YPC
- 2.6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 11
Emeka Egbuka
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 33
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 192
- YPR
- 9.1
- Rec TD
- 1
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 179
- YPR
- 9.4
- Rec TD
- 0
Injuries & Availability
Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker MayfieldQB
UNKNOWNDislocated thumb; Jalon Daniels has started in his absence. Week 6 final designation pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Pittsburgh Steelers
Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Latest News
- Steelers Week 5 grades: Offense has most complete performance of the year
Yahoo Sports NFL · 3h ago · PIT
- Steelers Week 6 power rankings roundup: Is Pittsburgh gaining respect?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · PIT
- Week 6 odds: Steelers open as slim favorites vs. Buccaneers
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · PIT / TB
- 2026 NFL Week 6 Power Rankings: Cowboys fall after Buccaneers loss
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · DAL / TB
- Getting Defensive: Week 6 fantasy plays led by Steelers, Jaguars; top streaming defenses
Yahoo Sports NFL · 7h ago · JAX / PIT
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · PIT
passingPittsburgh Steelers rank in the 32th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · TB
passingTampa Bay Buccaneers rank in the 29th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · PIT
efficiencyPittsburgh Steelers rank in the 42th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · TB
efficiencyTampa Bay Buccaneers rank in the 61th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Availability watch
availabilityTuesday news is preliminary. Check the official practice reports and final game designations before kickoff. The statistical probability does not include a separate injury adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Pittsburgh Steelers 56.9%.
- Rolling efficiency: Pittsburgh Steelers 53.1%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Pittsburgh Steelers at 54%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Pittsburgh Steelers and 5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment.
Model Analysis
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the v0.3 ensemble places Pittsburgh Steelers at 54%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Pittsburgh Steelers and 5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; prior-season form is blended in. Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (54%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.