Away
Tennessee Titans
0-5
Home
Indianapolis Colts
2-3
Model Win Probability
Tennessee Titans · Away
24%
separation52%
Indianapolis Colts · Home
76%
- Elo component
- 23% TEN
- Efficiency component
- 20% TEN
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| TEN | Metric | IND |
|---|---|---|
| -0.148 | EPA / Play | 0.035 |
| 38.8% | Success Rate | 45.0% |
| -0.156 | Dropback EPA | 0.020 |
| -0.129 | Rush EPA | 0.073 |
| 9.4% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.5% |
| 33.7% | 3rd Down Conversion | 40.8% |
| 54.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 67.3% |
| 0.090 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.030 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Lucas Oil Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Indianapolis Colts home game
Player Impact
Cam Ward
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 98/155
- Pass yds
- 896
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 5.8
- Sacks
- 10
Tony Pollard
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 68
- Rush yds
- 273
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 8
Tyjae Spears
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 65
- YPC
- 3.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 14
Carnell Tate
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 37
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 274
- YPR
- 11.9
- Rec TD
- 0
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 176
- YPR
- 8
- Rec TD
- 2
Away · Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 98/155
- Pass yds
- 896
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 5.8
- Sacks
- 10
Tony Pollard
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 68
- Rush yds
- 273
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 8
Tyjae Spears
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 65
- YPC
- 3.8
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 14
Carnell Tate
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 37
- Rec
- 23
- Rec yds
- 274
- YPR
- 11.9
- Rec TD
- 0
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 176
- YPR
- 8
- Rec TD
- 2
Home · Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 108/176
- Pass yds
- 1021
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 5.8
- Sacks
- 9
Jonathan Taylor
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 101
- Rush yds
- 398
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 6
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 13
Seth McGowan
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 61
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
Josh Downs
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 34
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 249
- YPR
- 12.4
- Rec TD
- 0
Keenan Allen
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 145
- YPR
- 8.1
- Rec TD
- 1
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Tennessee Titans
Home · Indianapolis Colts
Latest News
- Colts promote Pharaoh Brown, re-sign Germaine Pratt to practice squad
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · IND
- Colts signing TE Pharaoh Brown to 53-man roster
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 5h ago · IND
- Colts signing TE Pharaoh Brown to 53-man roster
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · IND
- Texans seemingly break Terrible Towel curse with win over Titans
ESPN NFL · 8h ago · HOU / TEN
- Titans offensive line comes back down to earth in Week 5
Yahoo Sports NFL · 10h ago · TEN
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · TEN
passingTennessee Titans rank in the 0th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · IND
passingIndianapolis Colts rank in the 35th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · TEN
efficiencyTennessee Titans rank in the 13th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · IND
efficiencyIndianapolis Colts rank in the 35th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Tennessee Titans 22.7%.
- Rolling efficiency: Tennessee Titans 20.0%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors Indianapolis Colts at 76%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Tennessee Titans and 5 for Indianapolis Colts; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday.
Model Analysis
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: the v0.3 ensemble places Indianapolis Colts at 76%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Tennessee Titans and 5 for Indianapolis Colts; prior-season form is blended in. Official Week 6 practice reports and final game designations are pending as of Tuesday. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Indianapolis Colts (76%). Signal: Strong; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.