Away
Washington Commanders
1-3-1
Home
San Francisco 49ers
5-0
Model Win Probability
Washington Commanders · Away
23%
separation54%
San Francisco 49ers · Home
77%
- Elo component
- 19% WAS
- Efficiency component
- 24% WAS
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-13T21:52:00.462286Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| WAS | Metric | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 0.017 | EPA / Play | 0.124 |
| 43.8% | Success Rate | 49.6% |
| 0.095 | Dropback EPA | 0.271 |
| -0.075 | Rush EPA | -0.069 |
| 11.7% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.2% |
| 37.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 51.1% |
| 63.4% | Red Zone TD Rate | 76.6% |
| 0.114 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.003 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Levi's Stadium
- Kickoff
- Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 8 days
- Home rest
- 8 days
- Site
- San Francisco 49ers home game
Player Impact
Jayden Daniels
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- CMP/ATT
- 46/76
- Pass yds
- 459
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 6
- Sacks
- 6
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 67
- Rush yds
- 239
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
Rachaad White
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 29
- Rush yds
- 118
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 10
Stefon Diggs
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 31
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 170
- YPR
- 9.4
- Rec TD
- 3
Terry McLaurin
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 203
- YPR
- 14.5
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 3 games
- CMP/ATT
- 46/76
- Pass yds
- 459
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 6
- Sacks
- 6
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 67
- Rush yds
- 239
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
Rachaad White
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Carries
- 29
- Rush yds
- 118
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 10
Stefon Diggs
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 31
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 170
- YPR
- 9.4
- Rec TD
- 3
Terry McLaurin
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 4 games
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 203
- YPR
- 14.5
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy
QB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 98/142
- Pass yds
- 1196
- Pass TD
- 13
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 8.4
- Sacks
- 3
Christian McCaffrey
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 61
- Rush yds
- 286
- YPC
- 4.7
- Rush TD
- 5
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 19
Kaelon Black
RB2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Carries
- 37
- Rush yds
- 136
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
Mike Evans
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 34
- Rec
- 24
- Rec yds
- 326
- YPR
- 13.6
- Rec TD
- 3
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR2026 Weeks 1–5; 5 games
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 206
- YPR
- 12.9
- Rec TD
- 3
Injuries & Availability
Home · San Francisco 49ers
Deebo SamuelWR
UNKNOWNHamstring injury reported after Week 5; availability for Monday pending.
Status checked Tuesday, Oct 13; final Week 6 game designation still pending.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 5 gamesAway · Washington Commanders
Home · San Francisco 49ers
Latest News
- Barnwell sizes up two confusing Week 5 decisions
ESPN NFL · just now · HOU / WAS
- Parsons: 'Daniels probably cost my man Dan Quinn his job' with Commanders
ESPN NFL · just now · WAS
- Micah Parsons blames Jayden Daniels for clock mismanagement, says Commanders QB 'probably cost' Dan Quinn his job
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · WAS
- 49ers are now the favorites to win the Super Bowl, moving ahead of Rams in betting odds
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · LA / SF
- 49ers are now the favorites to win the Super Bowl, moving ahead of Rams in betting odds
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 4h ago · LA / SF
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · WAS
passingWashington Commanders rank in the 55th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Passing profile · SF
passingSan Francisco 49ers rank in the 97th league percentile for blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 6.
Defense profile · WAS
efficiencyWashington Commanders rank in the 3th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Defense profile · SF
efficiencySan Francisco 49ers rank in the 55th league percentile for blended 2025–26 defensive EPA allowed entering Week 6.
Availability watch
availabilityTuesday news is preliminary. Check the official practice reports and final game designations before kickoff. The statistical probability does not include a separate injury adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Washington Commanders 19.0%.
- Rolling efficiency: Washington Commanders 24.3%.
- The blended, calibrated estimate favors San Francisco 49ers at 77%; a single game remains uncertain.
What Could Flip It
- The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Washington Commanders and 5 for San Francisco 49ers; prior-season form is blended in.
- Model components agree; one game has substantial variance.
- Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment.
Model Analysis
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers: the v0.3 ensemble places San Francisco 49ers at 77%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with the saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 5 current-season games for Washington Commanders and 5 for San Francisco 49ers; prior-season form is blended in. Major availability remains unresolved; the model does not apply an explicit lineup or injury adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: San Francisco 49ers (77%). Signal: Strong; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.