Away
Cincinnati Bengals
3-2
Home
Baltimore Ravens
4-2
Model Win Probability
Cincinnati Bengals · Away
44%
separation12%
Baltimore Ravens · Home
56%
- Elo component
- 39% CIN
- Efficiency component
- 56% CIN
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| CIN | Metric | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 0.029 | EPA / Play | 0.064 |
| 46.6% | Success Rate | 45.4% |
| 0.051 | Dropback EPA | 0.142 |
| -0.033 | Rush EPA | -0.013 |
| 12.2% | Explosive Play Rate | 14.7% |
| 51.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 36.8% |
| 60.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 69.4% |
| 0.068 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.001 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- M&T Bank Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 14 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Baltimore Ravens home game
Player Impact
Joe Burrow
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 135/189
- Pass yds
- 1361
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 7.2
- Sacks
- 9
Chase Brown
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 71
- Rush yds
- 246
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 28
- Rec
- 24
Samaje Perine
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 27
- Rush yds
- 110
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 7
Tee Higgins
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 43
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 423
- YPR
- 15.7
- Rec TD
- 1
Ja'Marr Chase
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 38
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 289
- YPR
- 10.7
- Rec TD
- 4
Away · Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 135/189
- Pass yds
- 1361
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 7.2
- Sacks
- 9
Chase Brown
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 71
- Rush yds
- 246
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 28
- Rec
- 24
Samaje Perine
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 27
- Rush yds
- 110
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 7
Tee Higgins
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 43
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 423
- YPR
- 15.7
- Rec TD
- 1
Ja'Marr Chase
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 38
- Rec
- 27
- Rec yds
- 289
- YPR
- 10.7
- Rec TD
- 4
Home · Baltimore Ravens
Tyler Huntley
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games
- CMP/ATT
- 51/72
- Pass yds
- 429
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 6
- Sacks
- 6
Derrick Henry
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 130
- Rush yds
- 534
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 9
Justice Hill
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 18
- Rush yds
- 133
- YPC
- 7.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 10
Zay Flowers
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 42
- Rec
- 32
- Rec yds
- 471
- YPR
- 14.7
- Rec TD
- 2
Rashod Bateman
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 16
- Rec yds
- 233
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Injuries & Availability
Away · Cincinnati Bengals
Tanner HudsonTE
IRPectoral injury; placed on injured reserve.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Home · Baltimore Ravens
Lamar JacksonQB
UNKNOWNAnkle; day to day, coach said he could potentially return to practice Wednesday. Not a final game designation.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · Cincinnati Bengals
Home · Baltimore Ravens
Latest News
- Winners and losers from Ravens’ Week 6 loss to the Browns
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · BAL / CLE
- Ravens re-sign K Jake Moody after another Tyler Loop miss in Cleveland
Yahoo Sports NFL · 7h ago · BAL / CLE
- 3 things we learned from the Bengals’ first 5 games
Yahoo Sports NFL · 9h ago · CIN
- Bengals make 4 roster moves
Yahoo Sports NFL · 11h ago · CIN
- Browns defense gets huge game from Schwesinger, and these safeties stepped up big
Yahoo Sports NFL · 11h ago · BAL / CLE
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · CIN
passingCincinnati Bengals: 48/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · BAL
passingBaltimore Ravens: 71/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · CIN / BAL
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Cincinnati Bengals 26/100; Baltimore Ravens 52/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. 2 named items in game notes; final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Cincinnati Bengals 38.6%.
- Rolling efficiency: Cincinnati Bengals 56.0%.
- defense: Baltimore Ravens 52/100, Cincinnati Bengals 26/100.
- passing: Baltimore Ravens 71/100, Cincinnati Bengals 48/100.
What Could Flip It
- passRush: Cincinnati Bengals 84/100 versus Baltimore Ravens 39/100.
- situational: Cincinnati Bengals 74/100 versus Baltimore Ravens 49/100.
- Cincinnati Bengals have 5 completed 2026 games; Baltimore Ravens have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Starting-QB/major availability needs a later check; the model does not adjust for it.
Model Analysis
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: the v0.3 ensemble places Baltimore Ravens at 56%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 5 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. Starting-QB/major availability needs a later check; the model does not adjust for it. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Baltimore Ravens (56%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.