Away
New England Patriots
4-2
Home
Chicago Bears
4-2
Model Win Probability
New England Patriots · Away
47%
separation6%
Chicago Bears · Home
53%
- Elo component
- 50% NE
- Efficiency component
- 41% NE
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| NE | Metric | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 0.072 | EPA / Play | 0.051 |
| 45.6% | Success Rate | 45.9% |
| 0.215 | Dropback EPA | 0.130 |
| -0.135 | Rush EPA | -0.050 |
| 13.7% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.7% |
| 44.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 47.8% |
| 46.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 48.7% |
| -0.049 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.004 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Soldier Field
- Kickoff
- Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 4 days
- Home rest
- 4 days
- Site
- Chicago Bears home game
Player Impact
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 117/183
- Pass yds
- 1463
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 8
- Sacks
- 11
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 71
- Rush yds
- 263
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 15
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 49
- Rush yds
- 194
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 3
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 233
- YPR
- 11.7
- Rec TD
- 3
Romeo Doubs
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 261
- YPR
- 18.6
- Rec TD
- 3
Away · New England Patriots
Drake Maye
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 117/183
- Pass yds
- 1463
- Pass TD
- 11
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 8
- Sacks
- 11
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 71
- Rush yds
- 263
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 19
- Rec
- 15
TreVeyon Henderson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 49
- Rush yds
- 194
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 3
DeMario Douglas
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 233
- YPR
- 11.7
- Rec TD
- 3
Romeo Doubs
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 261
- YPR
- 18.6
- Rec TD
- 3
Home · Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games
- CMP/ATT
- 66/91
- Pass yds
- 712
- Pass TD
- 3
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 7.8
- Sacks
- 9
D'Andre Swift
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 94
- Rush yds
- 398
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 6
- Targets
- 21
- Rec
- 18
Kyle Monangai
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games; last played Week 4
- Carries
- 60
- Rush yds
- 324
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 5
Luther Burden III
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 43
- Rec
- 31
- Rec yds
- 361
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Rome Odunze
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 33
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 312
- YPR
- 15.6
- Rec TD
- 0
Injuries & Availability
Away · New England Patriots
Romeo DoubsWR
IRShoulder; placed on injured reserve.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
A.J. BrownWR
LIMITEDAnkle; Monday estimated limited practice.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Alijah Vera-TuckerOL
UNKNOWNHamstring; Monday estimated did not practice.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Drake MayeQB
FULLRight shoulder; Monday estimated full participation.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Home · Chicago Bears
Kyle MonangaiRB
UNKNOWNThumb/toe; Monday estimated did not practice.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Jonah JacksonOL
UNKNOWNHip/quad; Monday estimated did not practice.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
T.J. EdwardsLB
UNKNOWNHamstring; Monday estimated did not practice.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · New England Patriots
Home · Chicago Bears
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · NE
passingNew England Patriots: 90/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · CHI
passingChicago Bears: 68/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · NE / CHI
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: New England Patriots 74/100; Chicago Bears 58/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. 7 named items in game notes; final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: New England Patriots 49.9%.
- Rolling efficiency: New England Patriots 41.2%.
- rushing: Chicago Bears 74/100, New England Patriots 29/100.
- passRush: Chicago Bears 77/100, New England Patriots 55/100.
What Could Flip It
- passing: New England Patriots 90/100 versus Chicago Bears 68/100.
- defense: New England Patriots 74/100 versus Chicago Bears 58/100.
- New England Patriots have 6 completed 2026 games; Chicago Bears have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.
Model Analysis
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears: the v0.3 ensemble places Chicago Bears at 53%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Chicago Bears (53%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.