Away
Cleveland Browns
4-2
Home
Tennessee Titans
1-5
Model Win Probability
Cleveland Browns · Away
56%
separation12%
Tennessee Titans · Home
44%
- Elo component
- 64% CLE
- Efficiency component
- 46% CLE
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| CLE | Metric | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| -0.138 | EPA / Play | -0.144 |
| 37.3% | Success Rate | 38.9% |
| -0.103 | Dropback EPA | -0.147 |
| -0.189 | Rush EPA | -0.130 |
| 9.1% | Explosive Play Rate | 9.2% |
| 31.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 33.9% |
| 50.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 47.2% |
| -0.057 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.077 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Tennessee Titans home game
Player Impact
Deshaun Watson
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 111/174
- Pass yds
- 1174
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.7
- Sacks
- 24
Quinshon Judkins
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Carries
- 73
- Rush yds
- 221
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 18
Jaleel McLaughlin
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 72
- YPC
- 6.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
KC Concepcion
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 186
- YPR
- 8.5
- Rec TD
- 0
Denzel Boston
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 34
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 345
- YPR
- 20.3
- Rec TD
- 3
Away · Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 111/174
- Pass yds
- 1174
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 2
- Y/A
- 6.7
- Sacks
- 24
Quinshon Judkins
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Carries
- 73
- Rush yds
- 221
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 20
- Rec
- 18
Jaleel McLaughlin
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 72
- YPC
- 6.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 6
- Rec
- 4
KC Concepcion
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 35
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 186
- YPR
- 8.5
- Rec TD
- 0
Denzel Boston
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 34
- Rec
- 17
- Rec yds
- 345
- YPR
- 20.3
- Rec TD
- 3
Home · Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 109/177
- Pass yds
- 998
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 5.6
- Sacks
- 10
Tony Pollard
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 87
- Rush yds
- 349
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 13
- Rec
- 8
Tyjae Spears
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 18
- Rush yds
- 66
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 15
Carnell Tate
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 44
- Rec
- 29
- Rec yds
- 344
- YPR
- 11.9
- Rec TD
- 1
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 37
- Rec
- 25
- Rec yds
- 198
- YPR
- 7.9
- Rec TD
- 2
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · Cleveland Browns
Home · Tennessee Titans
Latest News
- Titans abruptly release DT Elliott for undisclosed incident at facility
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · TEN
- Seven things Solak thinks: Colts were right to give Steichen more time? Eagles could trade stars?
ESPN NFL · 2h ago · CLE / IND / PHI
- Eagles-Commanders stays in prime time for Week 8
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 4h ago · CLE / PHI / PIT / WAS
- Eagles-Commanders stays in prime time for Week 8
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · CLE / PHI / PIT / WAS
- Cleveland Browns: Quarterback D-Day is looming on the horizon
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · CLE
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · CLE
passingCleveland Browns: 3/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · TEN
passingTennessee Titans: 0/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · CLE / TEN
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Cleveland Browns 84/100; Tennessee Titans 13/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Cleveland Browns 63.9%.
- Rolling efficiency: Cleveland Browns 45.9%.
- defense: Cleveland Browns 84/100, Tennessee Titans 13/100.
- passRush: Cleveland Browns 94/100, Tennessee Titans 65/100.
What Could Flip It
- rushing: Tennessee Titans 35/100 versus Cleveland Browns 10/100.
- situational: Tennessee Titans 13/100 versus Cleveland Browns 11/100.
- Cleveland Browns have 6 completed 2026 games; Tennessee Titans have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.
Model Analysis
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans: the v0.3 ensemble places Cleveland Browns at 56%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Cleveland Browns (56%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.