Away
Dallas Cowboys
2-4
Home
Philadelphia Eagles
2-4
Model Win Probability
Dallas Cowboys · Away
43%
separation14%
Philadelphia Eagles · Home
57%
- Elo component
- 34% DAL
- Efficiency component
- 63% DAL
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| DAL | Metric | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 0.112 | EPA / Play | -0.033 |
| 47.7% | Success Rate | 40.3% |
| 0.192 | Dropback EPA | 0.035 |
| -0.033 | Rush EPA | -0.112 |
| 11.2% | Explosive Play Rate | 10.9% |
| 48.7% | 3rd Down Conversion | 35.5% |
| 79.2% | Red Zone TD Rate | 73.6% |
| 0.162 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.002 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Lincoln Financial Field
- Kickoff
- Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 8 days
- Home rest
- 8 days
- Site
- Philadelphia Eagles home game
Player Impact
Dak Prescott
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 163/246
- Pass yds
- 1639
- Pass TD
- 10
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.7
- Sacks
- 7
Javonte Williams
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 85
- Rush yds
- 317
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 19
Tyler Goodson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 34
- YPC
- 3.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 2
CeeDee Lamb
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 69
- Rec
- 48
- Rec yds
- 577
- YPR
- 12
- Rec TD
- 4
George Pickens
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 52
- Rec
- 33
- Rec yds
- 428
- YPR
- 13
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 163/246
- Pass yds
- 1639
- Pass TD
- 10
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 6.7
- Sacks
- 7
Javonte Williams
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 85
- Rush yds
- 317
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 19
Tyler Goodson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games
- Carries
- 11
- Rush yds
- 34
- YPC
- 3.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 2
CeeDee Lamb
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 69
- Rec
- 48
- Rec yds
- 577
- YPR
- 12
- Rec TD
- 4
George Pickens
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 52
- Rec
- 33
- Rec yds
- 428
- YPR
- 13
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · Philadelphia Eagles
Tanner McKee
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 1 game
- CMP/ATT
- 26/45
- Pass yds
- 215
- Pass TD
- 1
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 4.8
- Sacks
- 3
Saquon Barkley
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games; last played Week 4
- Carries
- 36
- Rush yds
- 182
- YPC
- 5.1
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 4
Tank Bigsby
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games; last played Week 4
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 91
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 4
- Rec
- 3
DeVonta Smith
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 4 games
- Targets
- 41
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 310
- YPR
- 11.9
- Rec TD
- 2
Dontayvion Wicks
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 32
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 284
- YPR
- 14.9
- Rec TD
- 1
Injuries & Availability
Home · Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen HurtsQB
IRPlaced on injured reserve; Tanner McKee started Week 6.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · Dallas Cowboys
Home · Philadelphia Eagles
Latest News
- Eagles' approach to Hurts 'appropriately guarded,' NFL chief medical officer says
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · PHI
- NFLPA calls for 'full investigation' into Eagles QB Hurts' medical care
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · PHI
- Seven things Solak thinks: Colts were right to give Steichen more time? Eagles could trade stars?
ESPN NFL · 2h ago · CLE / IND / PHI
- Reports: NFL won't punish Eagles for letting Hurts play with blood clot
ESPN NFL · 2h ago · JAX / PHI
- Allen Sills dismisses concern about team physician bias as "nonsense" (it's not)
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 3h ago · PHI
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · DAL
passingDallas Cowboys: 84/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · PHI
passingPhiladelphia Eagles: 45/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · DAL / PHI
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Dallas Cowboys 0/100; Philadelphia Eagles 55/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. 1 named item in game notes; final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Dallas Cowboys 33.9%.
- Rolling efficiency: Dallas Cowboys 62.9%.
- defense: Philadelphia Eagles 55/100, Dallas Cowboys 0/100.
- passRush: Philadelphia Eagles 29/100, Dallas Cowboys 0/100.
What Could Flip It
- offense: Dallas Cowboys 94/100 versus Philadelphia Eagles 29/100.
- passing: Dallas Cowboys 84/100 versus Philadelphia Eagles 45/100.
- Dallas Cowboys have 6 completed 2026 games; Philadelphia Eagles have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Starting-QB/major availability needs a later check; the model does not adjust for it.
Model Analysis
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: the v0.3 ensemble places Philadelphia Eagles at 57%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. Starting-QB/major availability needs a later check; the model does not adjust for it. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Philadelphia Eagles (57%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.