Away
Denver Broncos
4-2
Home
Arizona Cardinals
2-4
Model Win Probability
Denver Broncos · Away
69%
separation38%
Arizona Cardinals · Home
31%
- Elo component
- 77% DEN
- Efficiency component
- 64% DEN
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| DEN | Metric | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| -0.024 | EPA / Play | -0.022 |
| 40.7% | Success Rate | 44.0% |
| 0.019 | Dropback EPA | 0.035 |
| -0.088 | Rush EPA | -0.147 |
| 9.4% | Explosive Play Rate | 9.6% |
| 34.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 40.4% |
| 73.3% | Red Zone TD Rate | 62.5% |
| -0.061 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.089 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- State Farm Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 10 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Arizona Cardinals home game
Player Impact
Bo Nix
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 114/189
- Pass yds
- 1049
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 5.6
- Sacks
- 8
J.K. Dobbins
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 81
- Rush yds
- 270
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 8
RJ Harvey
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 21
- Rush yds
- 81
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 23
Jaylen Waddle
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 38
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 228
- YPR
- 10.4
- Rec TD
- 1
Courtland Sutton
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 28
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 123
- YPR
- 9.5
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Denver Broncos
Bo Nix
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 114/189
- Pass yds
- 1049
- Pass TD
- 6
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 5.6
- Sacks
- 8
J.K. Dobbins
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 81
- Rush yds
- 270
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 8
RJ Harvey
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 21
- Rush yds
- 81
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 23
Jaylen Waddle
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 38
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 228
- YPR
- 10.4
- Rec TD
- 1
Courtland Sutton
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 28
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 123
- YPR
- 9.5
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · Arizona Cardinals
Jacoby Brissett
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 156/234
- Pass yds
- 1328
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 6
- Y/A
- 5.7
- Sacks
- 12
Jeremiyah Love
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Carries
- 67
- Rush yds
- 245
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 11
Tyler Allgeier
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 53
- Rush yds
- 157
- YPC
- 3
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 13
Michael Wilson
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 58
- Rec
- 33
- Rec yds
- 320
- YPR
- 9.7
- Rec TD
- 1
Kendrick Bourne
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 30
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 225
- YPR
- 10.2
- Rec TD
- 0
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · Denver Broncos
Home · Arizona Cardinals
Latest News
- Rams put Davante Adams, Poona Ford on IR
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 5h ago · ARI / LA
- Rams put Davante Adams, Poona Ford on IR
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · ARI / LA
- Survey: Do you think Sean Payton trusts Bo Nix right now?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 6h ago · DEN
- Banged-up Rams lose star WR Adams for 6-10 weeks, McVay says
ESPN NFL · 7h ago · ARI / LA
- Riley Moss or Ja’Quan McMillian? Which CB should the Broncos re-sign?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 10h ago · DEN / SEA
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · DEN
passingDenver Broncos: 39/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · ARI
passingArizona Cardinals: 42/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · DEN / ARI
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Denver Broncos 90/100; Arizona Cardinals 10/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Denver Broncos 76.7%.
- Rolling efficiency: Denver Broncos 64.0%.
- defense: Denver Broncos 90/100, Arizona Cardinals 10/100.
- passRush: Denver Broncos 97/100, Arizona Cardinals 45/100.
What Could Flip It
- situational: Arizona Cardinals 57/100 versus Denver Broncos 49/100.
- offense: Arizona Cardinals 39/100 versus Denver Broncos 35/100.
- Denver Broncos have 6 completed 2026 games; Arizona Cardinals have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.
Model Analysis
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals: the v0.3 ensemble places Denver Broncos at 69%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Denver Broncos (69%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.