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Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETIND @ MIN
Indianapolis Colts

Away

Indianapolis Colts

2-4

Minnesota Vikings

Home

Minnesota Vikings

5-0

Model Win Probability

Indianapolis Colts · Away

32%

Model
separation36%

Minnesota Vikings · Home

68%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
21% IND
Efficiency component
54% IND
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

61
6
Offense
35
6
Passing
100
32
Rushing
35
100
Defense
13
100
Pass Rush
50
29
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

INDMetricMIN
0.026EPA / Play-0.109
44.7%Success Rate40.1%
0.016Dropback EPA-0.098
0.054Rush EPA-0.133
12.5%Explosive Play Rate11.1%
39.1%3rd Down Conversion40.3%
63.9%Red Zone TD Rate38.8%
0.022Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.152

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
dome
Surface
sportturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
14 days
Site
Minnesota Vikings home game

Player Impact

Daniel Jones

QB

2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games

CMP/ATT
130/218
Pass yds
1290
Pass TD
4
INT
6
Y/A
5.9
Sacks
15

Jonathan Taylor

RB

2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games

Carries
122
Rush yds
492
YPC
4
Rush TD
7
Targets
23
Rec
15

Seth McGowan

RB

2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games

Carries
21
Rush yds
88
YPC
4.2
Rush TD
0
Targets
4
Rec
3

Josh Downs

WR

2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games

Targets
42
Rec
24
Rec yds
289
YPR
12
Rec TD
0

Keenan Allen

WR

2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games

Targets
40
Rec
26
Rec yds
227
YPR
8.7
Rec TD
1

Injuries & Availability

Away · Indianapolis Colts

Sauce GardnerCB

UNKNOWN

Calf strain; considered week to week.

Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 6 games

Away · Indianapolis Colts

Q1
22
Q2
60
Q3
19
Q4
40

Home · Minnesota Vikings

Q1
22
Q2
26
Q3
17
Q4
44

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · IND

passing

Indianapolis Colts: 35/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.

Passing profile · MIN

passing

Minnesota Vikings: 6/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.

Defensive profile · IND / MIN

efficiency

Defense EPA percentiles: Indianapolis Colts 35/100; Minnesota Vikings 100/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.

Availability watch

availability

Availability checked Tuesday, October 20. 1 named item in game notes; final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Indianapolis Colts 20.6%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Indianapolis Colts 53.6%.
  • passRush: Minnesota Vikings 100/100, Indianapolis Colts 13/100.
  • defense: Minnesota Vikings 100/100, Indianapolis Colts 35/100.

What Could Flip It

  • rushing: Indianapolis Colts 100/100 versus Minnesota Vikings 32/100.
  • offense: Indianapolis Colts 61/100 versus Minnesota Vikings 6/100.
  • Indianapolis Colts have 6 completed 2026 games; Minnesota Vikings have 5. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
  • The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.

Model Analysis

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings: the v0.3 ensemble places Minnesota Vikings at 68%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 5 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.

Forecast

Model pick: Minnesota Vikings (68%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.