Away
Kansas City Chiefs
5-0
Home
Seattle Seahawks
3-3
Model Win Probability
Kansas City Chiefs · Away
42%
separation16%
Seattle Seahawks · Home
58%
- Elo component
- 39% KC
- Efficiency component
- 50% KC
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-20T20:24:22.518Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| KC | Metric | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 0.070 | EPA / Play | 0.005 |
| 45.8% | Success Rate | 44.4% |
| 0.111 | Dropback EPA | 0.146 |
| 0.007 | Rush EPA | -0.164 |
| 13.1% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.2% |
| 43.7% | 3rd Down Conversion | 32.5% |
| 56.0% | Red Zone TD Rate | 62.2% |
| -0.055 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.130 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Lumen Field
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 10 days
- Site
- Seattle Seahawks home game
Player Impact
Patrick Mahomes
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 105/158
- Pass yds
- 1309
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 8.3
- Sacks
- 6
Kenneth Walker III
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 106
- Rush yds
- 665
- YPC
- 6.3
- Rush TD
- 6
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 14
Emmett Johnson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 19
- Rush yds
- 62
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 7
Xavier Worthy
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 206
- YPR
- 9.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Rashee Rice
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games; last played Week 3
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 190
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 105/158
- Pass yds
- 1309
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 8.3
- Sacks
- 6
Kenneth Walker III
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 106
- Rush yds
- 665
- YPC
- 6.3
- Rush TD
- 6
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 14
Emmett Johnson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Carries
- 19
- Rush yds
- 62
- YPC
- 3.3
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 7
Xavier Worthy
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- Targets
- 29
- Rec
- 21
- Rec yds
- 206
- YPR
- 9.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Rashee Rice
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 3 games; last played Week 3
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 13
- Rec yds
- 190
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · Seattle Seahawks
Sam Darnold
QB2026 Weeks 1–6; 5 games
- CMP/ATT
- 90/149
- Pass yds
- 1033
- Pass TD
- 7
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 6.9
- Sacks
- 14
Emanuel Wilson
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 87
- Rush yds
- 303
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 8
- Rec
- 5
George Holani
RB2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Carries
- 31
- Rush yds
- 97
- YPC
- 3.1
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 11
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 66
- Rec
- 49
- Rec yds
- 717
- YPR
- 14.6
- Rec TD
- 7
Rashid Shaheed
WR2026 Weeks 1–6; 6 games
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 14
- Rec yds
- 162
- YPR
- 11.6
- Rec TD
- 0
Injuries & Availability
Home · Seattle Seahawks
Elijah ArroyoTE
UNKNOWNShoulder; reported likely to go on injured reserve; transaction pending.
Checked Tue, Oct 20, 2026; game designation pending unless IR/PUP.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 6 gamesAway · Kansas City Chiefs
Home · Seattle Seahawks
Latest News
- Seahawks host former SEC Defensive Player of the Year winner for a tryout
Yahoo Sports NFL · 5h ago · LAC / SEA
- Chiefs are reportedly signing rookie LB Aiden Fisher to the practice squad
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · KC
- The Chiefs’ schedule gets a lot tougher starting in Week 7
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · KC
- Survey: Will Kenneth Walker snap the Seahawks’ ‘No 100-yard rusher’ streak?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 8h ago · SEA
- Riley Moss or Ja’Quan McMillian? Which CB should the Broncos re-sign?
Yahoo Sports NFL · 10h ago · DEN / SEA
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · KC
passingKansas City Chiefs: 61/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Passing profile · SEA
passingSeattle Seahawks: 74/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 7.
Defensive profile · KC / SEA
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Kansas City Chiefs 81/100; Seattle Seahawks 97/100. Lower EPA allowed rates better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 20. 1 named item in game notes; final designations remain subject to change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Kansas City Chiefs 39.3%.
- Rolling efficiency: Kansas City Chiefs 49.6%.
- passRush: Seattle Seahawks 61/100, Kansas City Chiefs 32/100.
- defense: Seattle Seahawks 97/100, Kansas City Chiefs 81/100.
What Could Flip It
- rushing: Kansas City Chiefs 94/100 versus Seattle Seahawks 13/100.
- offense: Kansas City Chiefs 74/100 versus Seattle Seahawks 45/100.
- Kansas City Chiefs have 5 completed 2026 games; Seattle Seahawks have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment.
Model Analysis
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks: the v0.3 ensemble places Seattle Seahawks at 58%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with saved strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 5 and 6 current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. The model applies no explicit player-availability adjustment. This is a pregame statistical estimate, not a certainty or wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Seattle Seahawks (58%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.